Yesterday, Dear Evan Hansen star, Ben Platt, had his caricature unveiled at Sardi’s.  He’s been dominating the awards circuit thus far, most recently becoming the youngest actor to ever receive the Drama League Distinguished Performance Award.

Can anyone stop Platt’s domination?

Spoiler Alert: No, not really. Ben Platt will win.

Let’s take a look at why.

Here are the hopefuls nominated alongside Platt for the Lead Actor in a Musical Tony:

Andy Karl (Groundhog Day)
David Hyde Pierce (Hello, Dolly!)
Christian Borle (Falsettos)
Josh Groban (The Great Comet)

I’ve heard two reasons people feel Platt could loose: First, that voters are gunning for Hansen, and second, that Andy Karl was one of the only good parts of Groundhog Day and is Due.  Here’s why each won’t mean much to the voters:

Gunning for Hansen

There were so many new musicals this year, and only a handful was praised with Tony nominations down the ticket.  Some voters will be looking for ways to award Groundhog Day, for example, with a Tony, since it is unlikely to win elsewhere.

The problem with this argument is that while I do think the anti-Hansen sentiment will play into the vote on something like Best Featured Actress in a Musical (helping Come From Away‘s Jen Colella edge ahead of Dear Evan Hansen‘s Rachel Bay Jones), Platt is, no doubt, deserving of the award.  I could even see a voter hedging against a Best Musical vote for Hansen to spread the wealth, but sticking to a Platt vote for Best Lead Actor in a Musical.

Karl is Due

The voters do love Andy Karl, and the reviewers did too.  If Platt didn’t win this year, they’d be saying that “Platt is Due” after his next nomination – so this is sort of a moot point.  The “[insert nominee] is due” vote only ever really prevails if there is no clear frontrunner in the category already.

The Rest of the Field is Spread So Thin

The real reason we won’t be seeing an upset on June 11?  There’s no nominee with enough momentum to whip up ALL of the non-Platt votes.  Not even Karl.  A group of people will want to vote for Groban as a “Welcome to Broadway.” Pierce will have a contingency of Dolly!-obsessed voters in his court. Even Borle will get a small number of votes from his admirers, and possibly the Charlie and the Chocolate Factory producers who could then advertise that their lead is a three-time Tony Winner.

So, yeah.  It’s over.  Ben Platt will be the 2017 Lead Actor in a Musical Nominee, For Forever.