This year’s race for the Tony Award for Best Musical is a close one. Three of the four nominees have a path to winning the coveted award (Sorry, Groundhog Day – you did get that Olivier though).
In the three years I’ve been covering the Tony Awards race, I have never been so unsure about the results of a Best Production category as I am for Best Musical this year.
Here, I lay out the paths to victory for each of the three possible victors: Dear Evan Hansen, Come From Away, and Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812.
Dear Evan Hansen
Dear Evan Hansen is the default to win. It took an early lead when it opened to such critical success in the fall, becoming an early blockbuster at the box office and generating hives-worth of buzz by industry and audiences alike.
If it retains the support it would have had if the votes were cast a few months after it opened, Dear Evan Hansen wins.
Come From Away
Come From Away wins Best Musical if it can convert enough of the sorta- or non-Evan Hansen supporters into Come From Away voters. There are a few reasons this scenario is probable:
(A) Dear Evan Hansen has lost steam since it first opened in December. So many productions have opened since, including Come From Away. Come From Away will earn at least a few votes because it is fresher in the voters’ minds.
(B) Come From Away has positioned itself as the more significant musical for the industry and the world. While Dear Evan Hansen has been accepting all kinds of press and appearances, Come From Away has focused its PR messaging during the campaign on the importance of the show and on the true story and characters it is based on. Come From Away also has set itself apart in its writing, as it is structured in a way that breaks the mold for Broadway storytelling. Evan Hansen fits the mold voters are used to seeing.
(C) Dear Evan Hansen will get a lot of votes down the ballot. The production has been nominated for 9 Tony Awards and is the clear front-runner in other categories (same with Great Comet). Come From Away has only two very accessible wins: Best Musical, and Featured Actress. Voters are likely to feel that they can give Dear Evan Hansen love elsewhere, but that Come From Away really needs the Best Musical win to assure the well-liked production does not walk away empty handed.
(D) Come From Away is has the “underdog story” going for it. While Dear Evan Hansen has been the assumed Best Musical of the year since before it even opened, Come From Away came out of left field as a quiet, humble musical which also happens to be extraordinary.
Natasha, Pierre & the Great Comet of 1812
Here’s the thing, Natasha, Pierre & the Great Comet of 1812 also has a solid group of supporters. It will get a non-negligible number of votes. From conversations I’ve had with industry members, the Great Comet backers are, for the most part, a distinct group from those deliberating over whether to vote for Dear Evan Hansen or Come From Away.
That means that if Come From Away pulls enough votes from would-be Dear Evan Hansen voters to rob Dear Evan Hansen of the majority, but not enough to surpass the support for Great Comet, Great Comet wins.
The scenario I describe above is possible, but I’m betting against it for two reasons:
(A) It assumes that there is a group of Great Comet voters who will not entertain a Dear Evan Hansen or Come From Away vote. While I have sensed that this might be the case, I don’t think that the group of supporters Come From Away has amassed since opening were all Dear Evan Hansen supporters prior. I bet a lot were would-be Great Comet voters.
(B) More importantly, even if the voting blocks are split as is described above, it requires that the Great Comet block is big enough to compete with the Dear Evan Hansen/Come From Away block. It is likely that Great Comet ends up in third in terms of vote count (a fact we will, unfortunately, never know) no matter which of Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away wins the Award.
Where does that leave us?
There is an insanely tight race for Best Musical this year. There are reasonable explanations for how any of Dear Evan Hansen, Come From Away, and Great Comet would amass enough votes to take home the hardware. The data gives Dear Evan Hansen the slightest edge over Come From Away, with Great Comet only a few points behind, but the margin of error is still big enough that we would be fools to have any real expectations going into the Tony Broadcast.
I still don’t know who I’m predicting for Best Musical, but stay tuned. Next week I’ll have to place my bets, whether I’m ready or not.
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