For the past three years, we correctly predicted more Tony Award winners than any other theater publication. While the Tony telecast isn’t until June 10th, we’re getting started early and publishing our predictions for nominations in each category here. A lot of the predictions below are for productions we haven’t seen yet, and those are based on rumors and industry buzz. As we see more shows this season, we will update this page with our most recent predictions.
Here’s what we haven’t seen as of Nomination morning: Lobby Hero; M. Butterfly; Marvin’s Room; Mean Girls; Saint Joan; Summer; Time and the Conways; The Iceman Cometh; The Parisian Woman; The Terms of My Surrender; Travesties
Note: According to the Tony Administration Committee’s most recent rule adjustment, expect there to be five nominees in each category except for: Best Musical, Best Revival of a Musical, Best Lead Actor in a Musical, and Best Book of a Musical. In all other categories, we can expect five nominees announced on Tuesday morning.
NOMINATIONS DAY UPDATE: Actual Nominees are highlighted in BLUE
Tony Award for Best Musical
Shoo-InsThe Band’s Visit
Mean Girls
SpongeBob SquarePants
On the Bubble
Frozen
Dark Horses
Prince of Broadway
Escape to Margaritaville
Summer
Tony Award for Best Play
Shoo-InsHarry Potter and the Cursed Child
On the Bubble
Farinelli and the King
The Children
Junk
Dark Horses
Meteor Shower
Latin History for Morons
John Lithgow: Stories by Heart
The Parisian Woman
Tony Award for Best Revival of a Musical
Shoo-Ins
My Fair Lady
Once on This Island
Carousel
On the Bubble
—
Dark Horses
—
Tony Award for Best Revival of a Play
Shoo-InsAngels in America
Three Tall Women
On the Bubble
Travesties
Lobby Hero
The Iceman Cometh
Dark Horses
Children of a Lesser God
Time and the Conways
Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Shoo-Ins
Joshua Henry (Billy Bigelow, Carousel)
Ethan Slater (SpongeBob SquarePants, SpongeBob SquarePants)
On the Bubble
Tony Shalhoub (Tewfiq, The Band’s Visit)
Harry Hadden-Paton (Henry Higgins, My Fair Lady)
Dark Horses
Paul Alexander Nolan (Tully, Escape to Margaritaville)
Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Shoo-Ins
Katrina Lenk (Dina, The Band’s Visit)
Lauren Ambrose (Eliza Doolittle, My Fair Lady)
On the Bubble
Hailey Kilgore (Ti Moune, Once on This Island)
Patti Murin (Anna, Frozen)
Taylor Louderman (Regina George, Mean Girls)
Jessie Mueller (Julie Jordan, Carousel)
Dark Horses
Caissie Levy (Elsa, Frozen)
LaChanze (Diva Donna, Summer)
Erika Henningsen (Cady Heron, Mean Girls)
Best Leading Actor in a Play
Shoo-Ins
Tom Hollander (Henry Carr, Travesties)
Andrew Garfeild (Prior Walter, Angels in America)
On the Bubble
Mark Rylance (King Phillipe V of Spain, Farinelli and the King)
Jamie Parker (Harry Potter, Harry Potter)
Denzel Washington (Theodore Hickman, The Iceman Cometh)
Dark Horses
John Lithgow (Stories by Heart)
Joshua Jackson (James Leeds, Children of the Lesser God)
John Leguizamo (Latin History for Morons)
Jeremy Shamos (Norm, Meteor Shower)
Best Leading Actress in a Play
Shoo-Ins
Glenda Jackson (A, Three Tall Women)
Lauren Ridloff (Sarah Norman, Children of a Lesser God)
On the Bubble
Amy Schumer (Corky, Meteor Shower)
Condola Rashad (Joan, Saint Joan)
Lili Taylor (Bessie, Marvin’s Room)
Dark Horses
Elizabeth McGovern (Mrs. Conway, Time and the Conways)
Uma Thurman (Rose, The Parisian Woman)
Best Director of a Musical
Shoo-Ins
David Cromer (The Band’s Visit)
Bartlett Sher (My Fair Lady)
On the Bubble
Tina Landau (SpongeBob SquarePants)
Casey Nicholaw (Mean Girls)
Michael Arden (Once on This Island)
Jack O’Brien (Carousel)
Dark Horses
Michael Grandage (Frozen)
Harold Prince & Susan Stroman (Prince of Broadway)
Best Director of a Play
Shoo-Ins
John Tiffany (Harry Potter)
Marianne Elliot (Angels in America)
On the Bubble
Joe Mantello (Three Tall Women)
James Macdonald (The Children)
Patrick Marber (Travesties)
Trip Cullman (Lobby Hero)
George C. Wolfe (The Iceman Cometh)
Dark Horses
John Dove (Farinelli and the King)
Kenny Leon (Children of a Lesser God)
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Shoo-Ins
Gavin Lee (Squidward, SpongeBob SquarePants)
Norbert Leo Butz (Alfred P. Doolittle, My Fair Lady)
On the Bubble
Ari’el Stachel (Haled, The Band’s Visit)
Alex Newell (Asaka, Once on This Island)
Grey Henson (Damian Hubbard, Mean Girls)
Jelani Alladin (Kristoff, Frozen)
Alexander Gemignani (Enoch Snow, Carousel)
John Cariani (Itzik, The Band’s Visit)
Dark Horses
Tony Yazbeck (Various Characters, Prince of Broadway)
Jordan Donica (Freddy Eynsford-Hill, My Fair Lady)
Adam Kantor (Telephone Guy, The Band’s Visit)
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Shoo-Ins
Lindsay Mendez (Carrie Pipperidge, Carousel)
On the Bubble
Lea Salonga (Erzulie, Once on this Island)
Kenita R. Miller (Mama Euralie, Once on This Island)
Ashley Park (Gretchen Wieners, Mean Girls)
Kerry Butler (Mrs. Heron/Ms. Norbury/Mrs. George, Mean Girls)
Diana Rigg (Mrs. Higgins, My Fair Lady)
Dark Horses
Kate Rockwell (Karen Smith, Mean Girls)
Rachel Prather (Julia, The Band’s Visit)
Renée Fleming (Nettie Fowler, Carousel)
Lisa Howard (Tammy, Escape to Margaritaville)
Ariana DeBose (Disco Donna, Summer)
Barrett Wilbert Weed (Janis Sarkisian, Mean Girls)
Emily Skinner (Various Characters,
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Shoo-Ins
Anthony Boyle (Scorpius Malfoy, Harry Potter)
Nathan Lane (Roy Cohn, Angels in America)
On the Bubble
James McArdle (Louis Ironson, Angels in America)
David Morse (Larry Slade, The Iceman Cometh)
Brian Tyree Henry (William, Lobby Hero)
Seth Numrich (Tristan Tzara, Travesties)
Dark Horses
Nathan Stewart-Jarrett (Belize, Angels in America)
Chris Evans (Bill, Lobby Hero)
Keegan-Michael Key (Gerald, Meteor Shower)
Michael Cera (Jeff, Lobby Hero)
Ron Cook (Robin, The Children)
Lee Pace (Joe Pitt, Angels in America)
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Shoo-Ins
Noma Dumezweni (Hermione Granger, Harry Potter)
Laurie Metcalf (B, Three Tall Women)
Denise Gough (Harper Pitt, Angels in America)
On the Bubble
Laura Benanti (Laura, Meteor Shower)
Francesca Annis (Rose, The Children)
Deborah Findlay (Hazel, The Children)
Dark Horses
Susan Brown (Hannah Pitt, Angels in America)
Alison Pill (C, Three Tall Women)
Bel Powley (Dawn, Lobby Hero)
Opal Alladin (Nadya, Travesties)
Scarlett Strallen (Gwendolen, Travesties)
Sara Topham (Cecily, Travesties)
Best Book of a Musical
Shoo-Ins
Tina Fey (Mean Girls)
Itamar Moses (The Band’s Visit)
Kyle Jarrow (SpongeBob SquarePants)
On the Bubble
Jennifer Lee (Frozen)
Dark Horses
David Thompson (Prince of Broadway)
Best Original Score
Shoo-Ins
The Band’s Visit (Music & Lyrics by David Yazbek)
Frozen (Music & Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez)
On the Bubble
SpongeBob SquarePants (The SpongeBob Music Team)
Mean Girls (Music by Jeff Richmond, Lyrics by Nell Benjamin)
Harry Potter (Music by Imogen Heap)
Dark Horses
Angels in America (Music by Adrian Sutton)
Best Choreography
Shoo-Ins
Justin Peck (Carousel)
On the Bubble
Christopher Gatelli (My Fair Lady)
Steven Hoggett (Harry Potter)
Christopher Gattelli (SpongeBob SquarePants)
Casey Nicholaw (Mean Girls)
Camille A. Brown (Once on This Island)
Dark Horses
Patrick McCollum (The Band’s Visit)
Susan Stroman (Prince of Broadway)
Rob Ashford (Frozen)
Robby Graham, Finn Caldwell & Steven Hogget (Angels in America)
Kelly Devine (Escape to Margaritaville)
Sergio Trujillo (Summer)
Best Orchestrations
Shoo-Ins
Jamshied Sharifi (The Band’s Visit)
On the Bubble
Tom Kitt (SpongeBob SquarePants)
Jason Robert Brown (Prince of Broadway)
Annmarie Milazzo & Michael Starobin (Once on This Island)
Jonathan Tunick (Carousel)
Imogen Heap (Harry Potter)
Dark Horses
John Clancy (Mean Girls)
Claire Van Kampen (Farinelli and the King)
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Shoo-Ins
David Zinn (SpongeBob SquarePants)
On the Bubble
Dane Laffrey (Once on This Island)
Michael Yeargan (My Fair Lady)
Christopher Oram & Finn Ross (Frozen)
Scott Pask, Finn Ross & Adam Young (Mean Girls)
Santo Loquasto (Carousel)
Dark Horses
Scott Pask (The Band’s Visit)
Beowulf Boritt (Prince of Broadway)
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Shoo-Ins
Christine Jones (Harry Potter)
Miriam Buether (Three Tall Women)
On the Bubble
Ian MacNeil & Edward Pierce (Angels in America)
Chloe Lamford & Tim Reid (1984)
Jonathan Fensom (Farinelli and the King)
Dark Horses
Beowulf Boritt (Meteor Shower)
David Rockwell (Lobby Hero)
John Lee Beatty (Junk)
Tim Hatley (Travesties)
What We Missed
Santo Loquasto (The Iceman Cometh)
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Shoo-Ins
David Zinn (SpongeBob SquarePants)
On the Bubble
Clint Ramos (Once on This Island)
Christopher Oram (Frozen)
Catherine Zuber (My Fair Lady)
Gregg Barnes (Mean Girls)
Dark Horses
Ann Roth (Carousel)
William Ivey Long (Prince of Broadway)
Sarah Laux (The Band’s Visit)
Best Costume Design of a Play
Shoo-Ins
Katrina Lindsay (Harry Potter)
On the Bubble
Ann Roth (Three Tall Women)
Paloma Young (Time and the Conways)
Lorraine Ebdon Price (Farinelli and the King)
Tim Hatley (Travesties)
Dark Horses
Nicky Gillibrand (Angels in America)
Constance Hoffman (M. Butterfly)
Matthew Pachtman (Meteor Shower)
Chloe Lamford (1984)
What We Missed
Ann Roth (The Iceman Cometh)
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Shoo-Ins
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer (Once on This Island)
On the Bubble
Kevin Adams (SpongeBob SquarePants)
Kenneth Posner (Mean Girls)
Natasha Katz (Frozen)
Brian MacDevitt (Carousel)
Dark Horses
Tyler Micoleau (The Band’s Visit)
Howell Binkley (Summer)
What We Missed
Donald Holder (My Fair Lady)
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Shoo-Ins
Neil Austin (Harry Potter)
Paule Constable (Angels in America)
On the Bubble
Natasha Chivers (1984)
Paul Russell (Farinelli and the King)
Paul Gallo (Three Tall Women)
Dark Horses
Natasha Katz (Meteor Shower)
Peter Mumford (The Children)
What We Missed
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer (The Iceman Cometh)
Ben Stanton (Junk)
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Shoo-Ins
Kai Harada (The Band’s Visit)
On the Bubble
Marc Salzberg (My Fair Lady)
Walter Trarbach & Mike Dobson (SpongeBob SquarePants)
Peter Hylenski (Once on This Island)
Scott Lehrer (Carousel)
Peter Hylenski (Frozen)
Dark Horses
Brian Ronan (Escape to Margaritaville)
What We Missed
Brian Ronan (Mean Girls)
Best Sound Design of a Play
Shoo-Ins
Gareth Fry (Harry Potter)
Ian Dickinson for Autograph (Angels in America)
On the Bubble
Tom Gibbons (1984)
Fitz Patton (Meteor Shower)
Adam Cork (Travesties)
Fitz Patton (Three Tall Women)
Dark Horses
Jill Bc Du Boff (Children of a Lesser God)
Max Pappenheim (The Children)
Will Pickens (M. Butterfly)
Jonathan Fensom (Farinelli and the King)
Darron L. West (Lobby Hero)
Dan Moses Schreir (The Iceman Cometh)
We’re trying something new this year: Based on the above predictions and a very under-developed formula, here’s a stab at how many nominations each production will accrue:
The Band’s Visit: 10
Mean Girls: 9
SpongeBob SquarePants: 9
Once on This Island: 8
Carousel: 7
My Fair Lady: 7
Frozen: 6
Prince of Broadway: 2
Summer: 1
Harry Potter: 11
Angels in America: 9
Three Tall Women: 6
Travesties: 4
Farinelli and the King: 4
The Iceman Cometh: 3
The Children: 3
Lobby Hero: 2
Meteor Shower: 2
1984: 2
Children of a Lesser God: 1
Junk: 1
Time and the Conways: 1
(I’m 18 nominations shy of the 125 nominations expected…but its a start!)
58 comments
Join the conversationSarah - December 31, 2017
Good predictions so far, but I think SpongeBob deserves to be higher up.
Oliver - January 8, 2018
I happen to agree with you Sarah, and I’ve just updated the post with several changes including moving SpongeBob into the “On the Bubble” category. When I first wrote these predictions, SpongeBob wasn’t doing the business it needs to in order to maintain strong momentum through Tony season. The box office has since picked up and it could sneak in now.
Gwen - January 15, 2018
I agree with everything except for “On the Bubble” with Once on This Island; I really want it to win Best Revival! XD
Oliver - February 8, 2018
Gwen, I agree with you and this was changed in my most recent update. Due to the box office success of Once on This Island, they are now very secure in their nomination.
Emily - February 10, 2018
Honestly, I would love of OOTI to sweep the whole thing. I think Kilgore’s breakout performance deserves a Tony. Michael Arden’s reimagining of the whole story is amazing. Scenic design was brilliant. The costumes tell a story in itself. Ugh, I just think it’s one of the best shows on Broadway right now. But to each their own! It’s a fairly strong season, it’ll be interesting with how everything pans out!
Oliver - February 13, 2018
Kilgore has a nice path towards a nomination but walking away with the win is going to be hard. That is shaping up to be a fierce category. Michael Arden was an accidental omission. I do think he has a solid path towards a nomination. The design elements are all nice and I think they have a shot at 1-3 nominations in design categories. But, the spring season is filled with productions that you just know are going to BRING IT when it comes to physical production – Frozen, My Fair Lady & Carousel have the creative and production teams that are usual suspects for nods in these categories.
Matt - April 28, 2018
I’m hoping Hailey Kilgore gets the nomination but ideally I’d love her to win. 18 with that breakthrough, and to handle it and do sensational?? Unheard of!! Additionally I wouldn’t be surprised if Barrett Wilbert Weed got a featured actress in a musical nom due to her insane cult following, but she’s competing with greats. (ie Lea Solonga, and i’m a huge Kerry
Butler fan)
Oliver - April 28, 2018
Hailey will almost certainly get the nomination but the win will be tough in that category. I don’t see Mean Girls for another 2 weeks but I hear Barrett is very good. Only problem for her is that there are SO many great featured actresses this year and a lot of them are from her own show.
Marc - January 23, 2018
I hope you will see/rate “Anastasia.” For me, it was the most outstanding musicals that I have seen (Best Musical, Story, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress and Actor, Best Choreographer, Set Design, etc.)
Oliver - February 8, 2018
Marc, Anastasia actually opened last season and so it is not eligible for this year’s Tony Awards. It received two nominations last year.
JK Larkin - May 1, 2018
Four Nominations.* 😉
Allison - February 7, 2018
I’d add Fracesca Annis and Ron Cook of The Children to the list as well as James Macdonald as director . Also, Glenda Jackson back on Broadway for the first time since 1988 is unlikely to go without a nomination
Allison - February 7, 2018
And I would argue David Yazbeck is s shoo in for Best Score for The Bands Visit
Oliver - February 8, 2018
Allison, Francesca Annis was already on my list, but now that I have seen The Children I can add Ron and James with some confidence. Glenda is certainly a possibility for Three Tall Women but until I see it I don’t know where to place her. I also agree that David Yazbeck will get a nod for Best Score, but I haven’t filled out my analysis of that category yet. I’ll do so shortly so be sure to check back!
Oliver - February 8, 2018
I also have a feeling that Ron and Francesca will be eligible as featured actors instead of leads so I am awaiting that decision.
Harry - February 8, 2018
Too bad Martin McDonough’s HANGMEN was not produced on Broadway since it would make most of this lists. By far the best play in NYC right now.
Oliver - February 13, 2018
Actually Harry, there are rumors circling that HANGMEN will take the Court Theatre prior to the Tony Eligibility cut-off. So your wish may come true!
Nadine - February 9, 2018
Doesn’t look like the best featured actress in a play was fully fleshed out, but while you recognized Amy Schumer for best actress nomination, you left off the brilliant and hilarious contribution of Laura Benanti to Meteor Shower…
Oliver - February 13, 2018
Nadine, you are correct. I haven’t gotten around to the Best Featured Actor/Actress categories. These are harder to flesh out before seeing most of the competition and will start getting filled out in the coming weeks. That said, I did thoroughly enjoy Laura’s performance.
Luke - March 1, 2018
I know some categories aren’t filled out so this may be a moot point but I don’t even see the bones for Sound Design, which they’re bringing back this year. I’d love to see your predictions for that. I’d also like to see your thoughts on the featured in a musical races.
Oliver - March 8, 2018
Luke, thank you so much for pointing this out! I forgot to add back the sound design category (I used my article from last year as a template for the formatting this year). I’m going to add it right now. I’ll start to fill out Sound Design predictions in my next update, which is also when you’ll start to see some of the featured perofmance categories get filled in. Expect that update shortly after the Tony Awards Administration Committee releases their next set of eligibility rulings.
Luke Evans - March 8, 2018
When are you planning on seeing Carousel? I haven’t seen it but reactions from previews have been very negative.
Oliver - April 16, 2018
Saw it last month and that will be reflected in my update next week! I heard the same things you had from colleagues and personally agreed with them – though the reviewers seemed to enjoy it.
Josh - March 12, 2018
Hi there!
I’m really excited for this coming Tony Awards, and I think you’ve got some great predictions here. I haven’t seen a lot, but I’ve done as much research as I can on these shows. I’m wondering if you think M. Butterfly would be considered for Best Scenic Design of a Play? I did get to see that one and thought the Scenic Design was pretty inventive and clever. Just curious on your thoughts!
Oliver - April 16, 2018
Hi Josh!
I actually didn’t get a chance to see M. Butterfly but I wouldn’t completely write off a Best Scenic Design nod. However, there were so many great sets this year, and I think we’re more likely to see Scenic Design go to Harry Potter, Angels in America, and then likely 2 of the other currently running shows but maybe 1 nod from a closed show. Now that 1984 is re-eligible, I would not be surprised if it nabbed a nomination for Scenic Design.
Josh - April 19, 2018
I completely agree. Didn’t know 1984 is re-eligible! That’s exciting, and I wouldn’t be surprised either. Thanks for all your thoughts. I’ll definitely stay posted on this blog.
MP - March 30, 2018
I found the gods of Once on this Island to be notable (specifically Lea Salonga, Alex Newell, and Quentin Earl Darrington), but I don’t know which category any of them might be eligible for (featured actor/actress in a musical?)…
Oliver - April 16, 2018
Hey MP,
All of the Once on this Island cast members other than Hailey would be featured actor/actress. I Haven’t seen the show since previews, but in shows like OOTI which have a bunch of featured performers, any nods tend to go to show-stealers or known actors. So, that said, I would expect Lea & Alex to be the most likely to receive nods. I’ll be digging into this more next week when I update the featured categories!
Barry - April 3, 2018
Wonderful predictions! Keegen-Michael Key is a good shot at a nod and I would not be surprised to see Blair Brown (Parisian Woman) in the mix. I agree with the posters who mentioned Hailey Kilgore as a should-be lock. I think OOTI is going to get a lot of nods and wins. What has not yet opened that you think may pick up some serious consideration?
Oliver - April 16, 2018
Hi Barry,
Keegen-Michael Key and Blair Brown gave phenomenal performances. The only thing going against them is that they have to hope they made enough of a mark on the nominator’s minds that they can hold their positions after all of the spring shows opened. Hailey is very likely to get a nomination for sure.
In terms of things to still watch for: Harry Potter, My Fair Lady, and The Iceman Cometh would be my guesses at likely produtions yet to open that can rack up noms.
Jason - April 6, 2018
I look forward to your predictions every year! Thanks for doing this!
Oliver - April 16, 2018
Thanks Jason!
Kitgony - April 14, 2018
All four actors in “Lobby Hero” just got deemed eligible as Featured Actors rather than Leading. Do you think that changes the lineup? I hear the whole cast is stellar.
Oliver - April 16, 2018
Absolutely! That decision will be reflected in the update to come next week. Stay tuned…
Noah - April 24, 2018
If I am right, 1984 is not eligible for any Tony’s due to not giving tickets to voters or something within that reason.
Oliver - April 25, 2018
Noah, you are correct that at first, the Tony Awards Administration Committee deemed 1984 as ineligible due to a failure to provide tickets to one of the Tony Voters. However, in the committee’s most recent meeting on April 12th, they reversed that decision, making 1984 eligible for this year’s awards.
Jaime - April 25, 2018
ok, I have a question – since there are only three musical revivals that opened this season, does that mean they automatically all get nominated for Best Revival?
Oliver - April 25, 2018
Jamie, great question! The answer is that they are in fact not automatically granted a nomination. The default number of nominees in this season would be three, but the Tony Rules stipulate that:
So it is definitely possible that we would only see two nominated. However, considering the critical praise that all 3 have received, I would be shocked if any are denied a nomination.
Chris - April 25, 2018
I have been fortunate to see all the New Musicals this season (not all the revivals). I know that The Bands Visit is getting a lot of positive reviews and the critics seems to like it, but Mean Girls (IMHO) the better show. How much does boxoffice results play into the thinking when choosing the Tony winners?
Oliver - April 26, 2018
Hey there Chris! First off, it’s amazing you’ve gotten to see all the new musicals this season (I’ve still got Mean Girls and Summer to get to). The answer to your question is a bit complicated. Technically, “box office success” isn’t something that many (if any) voters would probably explicitly say they factor into their decision. However, I do think there is the perception among voters that the Tony Awards do matter for a show’s success (or continued success), so sometimes box office results might influence a decision in that sense. Also, It’s important to remember that there is a definite correlation between box office success and how much people are enjoying a show. So, a show that is doing better at the box office may also be pleasing more Tony Voters. At the very least, those Tony Voters may perceive that success as indication that the show is worthy of substantial consideration.
Chris - April 28, 2018
Will be interested to see if any of the nominations predictions change after you see them.
Alejandro - April 26, 2018
Hey, I’m confused. I’ve been looking at this list very often and every time I see it, I saw Cassie Levy as Shoe-In for Leading Actress and now she is in the dark horse. What happened?
Jordan - April 26, 2018
she was not nominated for either Drama Desk Award or the Outer Critics Circle Award
Oliver - April 26, 2018
As Jordan mentioned, she was not nominated in any of the previous awards. Moreover,
Cassie was a Shoe-In before the show opened – the thought being that whoever plays Elsa was going to get a nomination. However, things have changed due to Frozen not being very well received. That category is very full of strong female performances and It always seemed like only one of Frozen or Mean Girls would be able to grab two nominations (if any), and now my money is on Mean Girls having an easier time in that regard.
Jordan - April 26, 2018
What do you think the chance is of Grey Henson being nominated for Best Featured actor? I’d love for Barrett Wilbert Weed to get a nomination, but I’m not so sure if she will.
Oliver - April 26, 2018
Grey has a good chance for the nomination. As you can probably tell, at this time of the season I’m updating thing daily. I will be updating the featured performance category tomorrow and you can expect to see him up there after then. Barrett will have a harder time seeing her way through because the featured actress in a musical category is loaded!
Mallory - April 26, 2018
Why do you think Caissie Levy isn’t getting nominated for anything? She has an killer voice and She portrays Elsa perfectly.
Oliver - April 27, 2018
Caissie still has a path toward a nomination, but that category is packed with talent and I don’t see Frozen being able to get both Patti and Caissie in the category, especially considering that nominating both would almost definitely require snubbing one of the other productions with killer lead female performances this season. That’s why one of them became a dark horse and I think Patti is the more likely to be nominated.
Chris - April 28, 2018
Agreed. Patti has the stronger performance in Frozen. Cassie was great, but if they only nominate one I would agree it should be Patti.
Ryan - April 27, 2018
I saw you put Kate Rockwell as a Dark Horse for Mean Girls. I was wondering why that was. In my opinion she was the best part in the show and I have seen others say this too
Oliver - April 27, 2018
Hey there Ryan. The reason Kate is a Dark Horse right now is that she’s up against some fierce competition, and I think Ashley Park is the most likely Mean Girls featured actress to be nominated. They may be able to get 2 nominated but 3 is going to be much harder, which is why I only put one of Kerry Butler and Kate Rockwell On The Bubble and the other a Dark Horse. That said, I have not seen Mean Girls yet so I am basing this solely on what I’ve heard. Also, I’m expecting there to be some substantial changes to my predictions in that category after my next pass at it which will be early next week, after the Tony Administration Committee publishes their final round of evaluations (the one which will cover Mean Girls).
anonymous - April 28, 2018
I think Spongebob should definitely be a Shoo-In for Sound Design, based on Mike Dobson’s work alone. He is amazing! During the Chicago run, part of a behind-the-scenes video showed him doing the effects. It’s reeeaally cool…
Oliver - April 28, 2018
SpongeBob is probably going to get a nod for all of the great sound effects. I haven’t nearly finished fleshing out the design categories and especially not sound design, but check back on Monday for those final predictions.
Christopher Jerabek - April 29, 2018
Is there a particular reason that you have Merle Dandridge listed as a featured actor rather an actress for Once on this Island? Papa Ge has traditionally been a male in the past, but I don’t think that changes the category for the performer. For instance, the Leading Player in Pippin had been traditionally male, but Patina Miller was still entered into the Leading Actress category (and earned a well-deserved win, but that’s beside the point)
Oliver - April 29, 2018
Good catch… The reason it was under best actor is that I know my dear friend Rodrick Covington (male) understudies that role, but didn’t realize he covers for Tamyra so I got my characters confused.
Ben Wilson - April 29, 2018
Hoping Alex Newell is nominated for OOTI and hopefully wins a Tony, but only time will tell!
Oliver - April 29, 2018
I think there is a solid chance Alex will receive a nod on Tuesday.
JK Larkin - May 1, 2018
Hi! I’m JK Larkin, a college student on the Upper East Side. These are my predictions for tomorrow and I would love to hear what you think. 🙂
Tony Predictions 2018
Best Musical
1. Spongebob The Musical (DD, OCC)
2. Mean Girls (DD, OCC)
3. The Bands Visit (DD 2017)
4. Frozen (OCC)
Best Play
1. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child (OCC, DL)
2. The Children (OCC)
3. Farinelli and The King (OCC)
4. Junk (OCC)
5. Meteor Shower (DL)
Best Revival of A Musical
1. My Fair Lady (DD, OCC)
2. Once On This Island (DD, OCC)
3. Carousel (DD, OCC)
Best Revival of A Play
1. Angels in America (DD, OCC, DL)
2. Lobby Hero (OCC, DL)
3. Three Tall Women (DD, OCC, DL)
4. Travesties (DD, OCC, DL)
5. The Iceman Cometh (DL)
Best Book
1. Spongebob The Musical (DD, OCC)
2. Mean Girls (DD, OCC)
3. The Bands Visit (DD 2017, OCC 2017)
4. Frozen
Best Score
1. Spongebob The Musical (OCC)
2. The Bands Visit (DD 2017+, OCC 2017+)
3. Mean Girls
4. Frozen (OCC)
Best Direction of A Musical
1. Spongebob The Musical (DD, OCC)
2. The Bands Visit (DD 2017+ OCC 2017)
3. Once On This Island (OCC)
4. My Fair Lady (DD, OCC)
5. Carousel (DD)
Best Direction of A Play
1. Angels in America (DD, OCC)
2. Harry Potter and The Cursed Child (DD, OCC)
3. Travesties (OCC)
4. Three Tall Women (DD, OCC)
5. Lobby Hero
Best Choreography
1. Spongebob The Musical (CR, DD, OCC)
2. Once On This Island (CR, DD, OCC)
3. Carousel (CR, DD, OCC)
4. My Fair Lady (OCC)
5. Mean Girls (CR, DD)
Leading Actor in A Musical
1. Henry Hadden-Paton – My Fair Lady (DD, OCC, DL)
2. Ethan Slater – Spongebob (DD, OCC)
3. Tony Schalob – The Bands Visit (DL OCC 2017)
4. Joshua Henry – Carousel (DD, OCC, DL)
Leading Actress in A Musical
1. Lauren Ambrose – My Fair Lady (OCC,DL)
2. Jessie Mueller – Carousel (DD, DL)
3. Hailey Kilgore – Once On This Island (CR, OCC, DL)
4. Katrina Lenk – The Band’s Visit (CR, DL, OCC 2017)
5. Taylor Louderman – Mean Girls (OCC, DL)
Featured Actor in A Musical
1. Norbert Leo Butz – My Fair Lady (CR, OCC, DL*)
2. Gavin Lee – Spongebob (CR, DD, OCC)
3. Alexander Gemingnani – Carousel (DD, OCC)
4. Tony Yazbek – Prince of Broadway (CR, DD, OCC)
5. Jeliani Alladin – Frozen (DD, DL)
Featured Actress in a Musical
1. Ashley Park – Mean Girls (CR, DD, OCC, DL)
2. Kerry Butler – Mean Girls (DD, OCC)
3. Lindsay Mendez – Carousel (DD, OCC)
4. Diana Rigg – My Fair Lady (DD)
5. Emily Skinner – Prince of Broadway (OCC)
Leading Actor in a Play
1. Andrew Garfield – Angels in America (DD, OCC, DL)
2. Tom Hollander – Travesties (DD, OCC, DL)
3. Denzel Washington – The Iceman Cometh (DL)
4. Mark Rylance – Farinelli and the King (DL*)
5. Jamie Parker – Harry Potter
Leading Actress in a Play
1. Glenda Jackson – Three Tall Women (DD, OCC, DL)
2. Lauren Ridloff – Children of a Lesser God (OCC, DL)
3. Condola Rashad – Saint Joan (DL)
4. Amy Schumer – Meteor Shower (DL)
5. Uma Thurman – The Parisian Woman
Featured Actor in a Play
1. Nathan Lane – Angels in America (DD, OCC, DL*)
2. Anthony Boyle – Harry Potter (DD, OCC, DL)
3. James McArdle – Angels in America (DD, DL)
4. Brian-Tyre Henry – Lobby Hero (DD, DL)
5. David Morse – The Iceman Cometh (DD, OCC)
Featured Actress in a Play
1. Laurie Metcalf – Three Tall Women (DD, OCC, DL)
2. Denise Gough – Angels in America (OCC)
3. Noma Dumenzweni – Harry Potter
4. Laura Benanti – Meteor Shower (DL)
5. Alison Pill – Three Tall Women
Set Design – Play
1. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child (OCC)
2. Angels in America
3. Three Tall Women (DD, OCC)
4. Farinelli and the King
5. Lobby Hero
Set Design – Musical
1. Spongebob The Musical (DD, OCC)
2. My Fair Lady (OCC)
3. Once On This Island (DD)
4. Carousel (DD)
5. Frozen
Costume Design – Play
1. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child (DD, OCC)
2. Three Tall Women (DD)
3. Farinelli and the King (DD)
4. Time and The Conways (OCC)
5. Angels in America
Costume Design – Musical
1. Spongebob The Musical (DD, OCC)
2. Once On This Island (DD, OCC)
3. My Fair Lady (DD, OCC)
4. Mean Girls (DD)
5. Frozen
Lighting Design – Play
1. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child (DD, OCC)
2. Farinelli and the King (DD, OCC)
3. Angels in America (OCC)
4. Three Tall Women (DD)
5. 1984 (DD)
Lighting Design – Musical
1. Spongebob The Musical (OCC)
2. Once On This Island (DD)
3. Carousel (DD)
4. The Bands Visit
5. Frozen
Orchestrations
1. Spongebob The Musical (DD, OCC)
2. The Bands Visit (DD 2017, OCC 2017)
3. Once On This Island (DD, OCC)
4. Carousel (DD, OCC)
5. Farinelli and The King (OCC)
Sound Design – Musical
1. Spongebob The Musical
2. The Bands Visit
3. Once On This Island
4. Carousel
5. My Fair Lady
Sound Design – Play
1. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
2. Angels in America
3. Three Tall Women
4. 1984
5. The Iceman Cometh
Tennis & Theater – The New York Times
“An Upset,” a one-act play by David Auburn first seen in New York in 2008, is being revived around the city timed to the Open, including three shows at 99 Bowery beginning Sept. 12.
“It’s always hard to put a finger on why something is suddenly in the zeitgeist,” said Ruhl, a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist and a Tony Award nominee. “I don’t know why it is happening with tennis in theater right now. But for me, while researching the Bush dynasty, I realized tennis is such a big part of their lives and a wonderful metaphor for family competition and sibling rivalry.”
In “Scenes From Court Life,” Greg Keller plays George W. Bush as a more shrewd politician than his brother Jeb but an inferior tennis player.
“Athletes are almost another species to playwrights,” Keller said. “The writer’s world is so subjective, but for athletes there is always a winner and a loser.”
Tennis holds undeniable appeal for the theater. For starters, it can encompass widely different settings, including the Bush family compound, the public courts of the Lower East Side and Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Tennis, Keller said, is also “one-on-one, but you are not physically touching each other like in boxing.”
He added, “You are in your own little world.”
Bragen has written other works about tennis, including a monologue called “Game, Set, Match.” He said the sport offered intimacy and isolation — great fodder for writers.
“There’s a kind of dance that I feel as a player, but you are alone in your own head at the same time you are connected to other person,” Bragen said.
Ruhl said she liked the combat mixed with decorum, “the formality within the structure of competition.”
Ryan Sweeney, who played Division I tennis at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and is producing and starring in “An Upset,” said, “Tennis is a lonely sport, and Auburn’s script touches on the players’ vulnerabilities.”
Script Coverage Sample Feedback
Kinky Boots – Tony Awards
Wins
Best Musical
Best Original Score [Cyndi Lauper]
Best Actor in a Musical [Billy Porter]
Best Sound Design of a Musical [John Shivers]
Best Choreography [Jerry Mitchell]
Best Orchestrations [Stephen Oremus]
Nominations
Best Book of a Musical [Harvey Fierstein]
Best Actor in a Musical [Stark Sands]
Best Featured Actress in a Musical [Annaleigh Ashford]
Best Scenic Design of a Musical [David Rockwell]
Best Costume Design of a Musical [Gregg Barnes]
Best Lighting Design of a Musical [Kenneth Posner]
Best Direction of a Musical [Jerry Mitchell]