Our approach to predicting the Tony Award winners rests partly on statistical analysis, and partly on our own findings. Ahead of making our final predictions later this week, we publish the odds for each category as dictated by the data.
Best Musical
The Band’s Visit: 60%SpongeBob SquarePants: 21%
Mean Girls: 16%
Frozen: 3%
Best Play
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child: 92.5%Farinelli and the King: 3%
The Children: 3%
Junk: 1%
Latin History for Morons: 0.5%
Best Revival of a Musical
My Fair Lady: 51%Carousel: 25%
Once on This Island: 24%
Best Revival of a Play
Angels in America: 56%Three Tall Women: 17%
Travesties: 11%
The Iceman Cometh: 11%
Lobby Hero: 6%
Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Ethan Slater (SpongeBos): 47%Joshua Henry (Carousel): 22%
Harry Hadden-Patten (My Fair Lady): 16%
Tony Shalhoub (The Band’s Visit): 15%
Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Katrina Lenk (The Band’s Visit): 23%Lauren Ambrose (My Fair Lady): 21%
Jessie Mueller (Carousel): 17%
Hailey Kilgore (Once on This Island): 16%
Taylor Louderman (Mean Girls): 12%
LaChanze (Summer): 11%
Best Leading Actor in a Play
Andrew Garfield (Angels in America): 53%Tom Hollander (Travesties): 21%
Denzel Washington (The Iceman Cometh): 13%
Jamie Parker (Harry Potter): 12%
Mark Rylance (Farinelli and the King): 1%
Best Leading Actress in a Play
Glenda Jackson (Three Tall Women): 64%Lauren Ridloff (
Condola Rashad (Saint Joan): 11%
Amy Schumer (Meteor Shower): 6%
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Gavin Lee (SpongeBob): 29%Norbert Leo Butz (My Fair Lady): 24%
Ari’el Stachel (The Band’s Visit): 17%
Alexander Gemignani (Carousel): 16%
Grey Henson (Mean Girls): 14%
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Lindsay Mendez (Carousel): 43%Ashley Park (Mean Girls): 23%
Ariana DeBose (Summer): 13%
Diana Rigg (My Fair Lady): 12%
Renee Fleming (Carousel): 9%
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Nathan Lane (Angels in America): 38%Anthony Boyle (Harry Potter): 30%
David Morse (The Iceman Cometh): 17%
Brian Tyree Henry (Lobby Hero): 10%
Michael Cera (Lobby Hero): 4%
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Denise Gough (Angels in America): 29%Nome Dumezweni (Harry Potter): 23%
Laurie Metcalf (Three Tall Women): 21%
Deborah Findlay (The Children): 14%
Susan Brown (Angels in America): 13%
Best Director of a Musical
Tina Landau (SpongeBob): 46%David Cromer (The Band’s Visit): 28%
Bartlet Sher (My Fair Lady): 13%
Casey Nicholaw (Mean Girls): 9%
Michael Arden (Once on This Island): 5%
Best Director of a Play
John Tiffany (Harry Potter): 50%Marianne Elliot (Angels in America): 16%
Joe Mantello (Three Tall Women): 16%
Patrick Marber (Travesties): 10%
George C. Wolfe (The Iceman Cometh): 8%
Best Book of a Musical
Tina Fey (Mean Girls): 70%Itamar Moses (The Band’s Visit): 15%
Kyle Jarrow (SpongeBob): 14%
Jennifer Lee (Frozen): 1%
Best Score of a Musical
The Band’s Visit (Music & Lyrics by David Yazbek): 43%SpongeBob SquarePants (Music & Lyrics by The SpongeBob SquarePants Team): 14%
Mean Girls (Music by Jeff Richmond, Lyrics by Nell Benjamin): 8%
Frozen (Music & Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez): 7%
Angels in America (Music by Adrian Sutton): 6%
Best Choreography
Justin Peck (Carousel): 42%
Chris Gatelli (SpongeBob): 17%
Casey Nicholaw (Mean Girls): 16%
Chris Gatelli (My Fair Lady): 12%
Steven Hoggett (Harry Potter): 12%
Best Orchestrations
Jamshied Sharifi (The Band’s Visit): 30%
Jonathan Tunick (Carousel): 24%
Tom Kitt (SpongeBob SquarePants): 20%
John Clancy (Mean Girls): 15%
Annmarie Milazzo & Michael Starobin (Once on This Island): 11%
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
David Zinn (SpongeBob): 48%Michael Yeargan (My Fair Lady): 30%
Dane Laffrey (Once on This Island): 8%
Scott Pask (The Band’s Visit): 6%
Scott Pask, Finn Ross & Adam Young (Mean Girls): 7%
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Christine Jones (Harry Potter): 48%Miriam Buether (Three Tall Women): 26%
Jonathan Fensom (Farinelli and the King): 14%
Ian MacNeil & Edward Pierce (Angels in America): 6%
Santo Loquasto (The Iceman Cometh): 6%
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Catherine Zuber (My Fair Lady): 37%David Zinn (SpongeBob): 26%
Clint Ramos (Once on This Island): 16%
Gregg Barnes (Mean Girls): 12%
Ann Roth (Carousel): 8%
Best Costume Design of a Play
Katrina Lindsay (Harry Potter): 44%Lorraine Ebdon Price (Farinelli and the King): 18%
Ann Roth (Three Tall Women): 15%
Nicky Gillibrand (Angels in America): 12%
Ann Roth (The Iceman Cometh): 12%
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Jues Fisher & Peggy Eisenhaur (Once on This Island): 65%Tyler Micoleaun (The Band’s Visit): 13%
Brian MacDevitt (Carousel): 11%
Kevin Adams (SpongeBob): 9%
Donald Holder (My Fair Lady): 1%
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Neil Austin (Harry Potter): 63%Paul Russell (Farinelli and the King): 20%
Paule Constable (Angels in America): 15%
Joles Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer (The Iceman Cometh): 1%
Ben Stanton (Junk): 1%
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Walter Trarbach & Mike Dobson (SpongeBob): 45%Kai Harada (The Band’s Visit): 41%
Peter Hylenski (Once on This Island): 6%
Scott Lehrer (Carousel): 4%
Brian Ronanr (Mean Girls): 4%
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Gareth Fry (Harry Potter): 42%Tom Gibbons (1984): 17%
Ian Dickinson for Autograph (Angels in America): 14%
Adam Cork (Travesties): 14%
Dan Moses Schreir (The Iceman Cometh): 14%
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