Best Musical

Oliver: Unanimous votes that The Band’s Visit will and should win. Not surprising, The Band’s Visit was the critical hit of the season and if any other production beats them out for the Tony, they’ll have done that despite the clear critical favorite.

Best Play

Oliver: Again, unsurprising. This is the most cut-and-dry race of the season. No question in anyone’s mind that Harry Potter and the Cursed Child will and should win.

Best Musical Revival

Oliver: We’ve got mention of all three contenders here. Brantley seems convinced that Carousel will and should win. I’m sensing that Carousel has the hardest path to the win, as the production seems to be polarizing with some loving it and some not caring much for it. If you are one of those who loved it, as Brantley did, then it’s understandable that you suspect it could win. However, because of the split views on Carousel, many looking for a fantastic revival of a classic will vote for My Fair Lady, as Jesse Green indicates he preferred. That said, if there are enough voters looking to award a completely different type of revival with the Tony, we’ll see Once on This Island emerge victorious as Green predicts. So these guys aren’t far off here.

Best Play Revival

Oliver: Yep. This pretty much captures it.
Even if you preferred the current runner up, Three Tall Women, it’s near impossible to see this going to anyone but Angels in America.

Best Actor in a Musical

Oliver: Both of them would like to see Tony Shalhoub win but think Ethan Slater will win. I think they have this prediction right, and their wish for Shalhoub makes sense. The Band’s Visit was so lauded by these critics as a whole, and though they both recognize the power of Slater’s performance, the show isn’t as favored. Also remember that Shalhoub has the disadvantage of not performing in every show to accommodate his TV filming schedule, bringing less attention to his performance.

Best Actress in a Musical

Oliver: I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Lauren Ambrose (My Fair Lady) somewhere on this list but I’m also not shocked by the unanimous vote of confidence for Lenk. The Band’s Visit can do no wrong with these two.

Best Actor in a Play

Oliver: Garfield has a huge lead. Green is clearly not as big of a fan of the Angels in America revival as Brantley and the rest of the community. I don’t think his views represent the average Tony Voter.

Best Actress in a Play

Oliver: Yep. This is a no-brainer.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Oliver: Like I said, The Band’s Visit would walk away with a record number of Tony Awards if it were up to these two reviewers. I think Butz may have this but Stachel is giving him a run for his money.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Oliver: ? ? ? oh man – Brantley did it again. In the same category. I don’t know what Brantley’s deal is consistently predicting older Divas with absolutly no chance to win this award. Last year it was Mary Beth Peil (Anastasia), this year it is Diana Rigg who has as many songs in My Fair Lady as she has chances at winning this award: ZERO. The fact that he picked Rigg to win even though he thinks Mendez (who probably will win) should win makes this even better. Plese, someone, give Judi Dench a single scene in Act 1 of King Kong so we can give Brantley someone to predict as the winner next year.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Oliver: I don’t think either of those Lobby Hero actors have the win lined up, so interesting that both Brantley and Green mentioned them in some way. Green’s prediction that Nathan Lane will probably go home with the Tony is more in line with what we’re seeing. The contender they both left out that also has a shot is Anthony Boyle (Harry Potter)

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Oliver:Green’s letting his preference for Three Tall Women over Angels in America show again here.
Metcalf isn’t totally out of the question though Gough has a slight edge.
Also in the picture is Noma Dumezweni (Harry Potter).

Best Direction of a Musical

Oliver: I really thought this was going to go to Cromer when the campaign first started. Recently, Bartlett Sher (My Fair Lady) and Tina Landau (SpongeBob SquarePants) have been gaining steam. People credit Sher with reinventing My Fair Lady for the #MeToo era, and they credit Landau with conceiving of and executing a SpongeBob SquarePants musical in a way that doesn’t suck.
Michael Arden (Once on This Island) was a definite contender in this race but he’s recently fallen behind as that production continues to push for best revival without getting Arden out there himself.

Best Direction of a Play

Oliver: Ok Jesse. We get it. You Loved Three Tall Women and want to see it win more than the one award for Glenda Jackson, but this is Tiffany’s award.

Best Book of a Musical

Oliver: Totally understandable assessments from each of them. Tina Fey will win and very probably should win. Itamar Moses is arguably also deserving of the award though I doubt he’ll get it over Fey.

Best Score of a Musical

Oliver: No doubt Yazbek is the favorite to win. If Yazbek wins here but Fey wins Best Book, it will be the first time the two Tonys have been awarded to different productions since 2014, when Gentleman’s Guide won Best Book, but The Bridges of Madison County won Best Score.