Best Musical

1. Hadestown
2. Tootsie
2. The Prom
4. Ain’t Too Proud
5. Beetlejuice

Beetlejuice pulled off the upset over Be More Chill, which got snubbed in a lot of categories down the line (Be More Chill‘s only nomination was for Best Score). Other than that, the nominations in this category aren’t all that surprising. I’ll predict here and now that The Prom overtakes Tootsie for the #2 slot within the first weeks of the campaign.

Best Play

1. The Ferryman
2. What the Constitution Means to Me
3. Ink
3. Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus
5. Choir Boy

Here’s the story of the morning, folks. To Kill a Mockingbird was snubbed of a nomination for Best Play. It’s quite shocking actually – a well-liked, American play doing record-breakingly well at the box office. Not to mention that To Kill a Mockingbird tied The Ferryman for the most nominated plays of the season with 9 nods each. My takeaway here is that the nominators decided to not reward adaptations, leaving Network out as well.

Best Revival of a Musical

1. Oklahoma!
2. Kiss Me, Kate

No shockers here. Oklahoma! has the early lead and should be able to hang onto it.

Best Revival of a Play

1. The Waverly Gallery
2. The Boys in the Band
3. All My Sons
4. Burn This
5. Torch Song

This could be a very interesting race to watch. Firstly, we were expecting only four nominations but got five. Most likely that means a tie within 3 votes for fourth place, but it could just have been a decision from the committee.  Second, as expected, three of the nominations went to closed productions: The Waverly Gallery, The Boys in the Band, & Torch Song. I expect to see a lot of movement in this category over the next few weeks as each show’s campaign shapes up.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

1. Santino Fontana (Tootsie)
1. Brooks Ashmankas (The Prom)
3. Damon Daunno (Oklahoma!)
4. Alex Brightman (Beetlejuice)
5. Derrick Baskins (Ain’t Too Proud)

This is the only musical category where you won’t see a nominee from Hadestown. Santino is considered the frontrunner but I do think Brooks may be able to give him a run for his money.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

1. Stephanie J. Block (The Cher Show)
1. Beth Leavel (The Prom)
3. Kelli O’Hara (Kiss Me, Kate)
4. Eva Noblezada (Hadestown)
5. Caitlin Kinnunen (The Prom)

Stephanie J. Block may finally go home with the hardware this year. Her biggest competition comes from Beth Leavel, though I also think Eva Noblezada may be buoyed by Hadestown‘s campaign efforts.

Best Leading Actor in a Play

1. Bryan Cranston (Network)
2. Jeff Daniels (To Kill a Mockingbird)
2. Adam Driver (Burn This)
3. Paddy Considine (The Ferryman)
5. Jeremy Pope (Choir Boy)

This was the most loaded category of the year, and I’m happy with how the nominations turned out. That said, I have no idea how this is going to work out. I could see any one of these actors winning the award. Keep an eye on this category.

Best Leading Actress in a Play

1. Elaine May (The Waverly Gallery)
2. Laurie Metcalf (Hillary and Clinton)
2. Heidi Schreck (What the Constitution Means to Me)
4. Anette Bening  (All My Sons)
5. Laura Donnelly (The Ferryman)
6. Janet McTeer (Bernhardt/Hamlet)

Six nominees means there was a tie (within three votes). This should go to Elaine May but it’s not totally locked up.

Best Director of a Musical

1. Rachel Chavkin (Hadestown)
1. Daniel Fish (Oklahoma!)
3. Scott Ellis (Tootsie)
4. Casey Nicholaw (The Prom)
5. Des McAnuff (Ain’t Too Proud)

Des McAnuff was a dark horse here but not a complete surprise. The name of the game here is Rachel Chavkin v. Daniel Fish. Chavkin is now 2 for 2 in directing the most nominated show of the season (the last being The Great Comet). The risk is that Chavkin and Fish split the vote enough for Ellis to come through with a win, but I think Chavkin has it.

Best Director of a Play

1. Sam Mendes (The Ferryman)
2. Bartlett Sher (To Kill A Mockingbird)
2. Rupert Goold (Ink)
4. Ivo Van Hove (Network)
5. George C. Wolfe (Gary)

I wasn’t completely sure where the fifth nomination was going to go here, but considering how well Gary did across the board this morning, Wolfe’s nomination makes sense. Sam Mendes won the Olivier for his direction of The Ferryman, though I think the lack of an opportunity to vote for To Kill A Mockingbird for Best Play may direct voters towards Sher in the Best Director category.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

1. Andre De Shields (Hadestown)
2. Patrick Page (Hadestown)
3. Ephraim Sykes (Ain’t Too Proud)
4. Jeremy Pope (Ain’t Too Proud)
5. Andy Grotelueschen (Tootsie)

We’ve got two musicals with two nominees in this category. First thing to note: Jeremy Pope became the first actor to be nominated for a performance in a musical and play in the same year (in 1984, Dana Ivey did the same for actress, though both of her nominations were for featured performances). Second thing to note: Hadestown should win this award as long as they can decide which nominee to champion in the press and along the campaign. The Ain’t Too Proud double nom gave the two Hadestown guys a nice buffer from other threats. Biggest snubs here were George Salazar from Be More Chill, Patrick Vaill from Oklahoma! and Corbin Bleu from Kiss Me, Kate.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

1. Amber Gray (Hadestown)
2. Ali Stroker (Oklahoma!)
3. Sarah Stiles (Tootsie)
4. Mary Testa (Oklahoma!)
5. Lilli Cooper (Tootsie)

This should be Amber Gray’s for the taking.  Ali Stroker could also win but I think the fact that Mary Testa also was nominated gives Amber some insurance in the race she was already well ahead of.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

1. Brandon Uranowitz (Burn This)
2. Benjamin Walker (All My Sons)
2. Bertie Carvel (Ink)
4. Robin De Jesus (The Boys in the Band)
5. Gideon Glick (To Kill a Mockingbird)

This is a tight race. I don’t think Gideon is going to have a real path to winning, but any of the other four could definitely go home with the trophy on June 9th.  Our algorithm indicates a 2% difference between Brandon Uranowitz’s chances in 1st and Robin De Jesus’ chances in 4th. So stay tuned…

Best Featured Actress in a Play

1. Celia Keenan-Bolger (To Kill a Mockingbird)
2. Julie White (Gary)
3. Fionnula Flanagan (The Ferryman)
4. Kristine Nielsen (Gary)
5. Ruth Wilson (King Lear)

Celia Keenan-Bolger is due for a Tony Award and should have this locked. It is probably the strongest hold any nominee has in any category.

Best Book of a Musical

1. Robert Horn (Tootsie)
2. Bob Martin & Chad Beguelin (The Prom)
3. Anaïs Mitchell (Hadestown)
4. Dominique Morisseau (Ain’t Too Proud)
5. Scott Brown & Anthony King (Beetlejuice)

I’m not convinced Tootsie will actually win this over The Prom or Ain’t Too Proud, but the signs certainly point towards that. If last year’s upset of The Band’s Visit’s Itamar Moses winning over Mean Girls’ Tina Fey proved anything, it’s that we shouldn’t reject the idea that Hadestown walks away with this trophy either.

Best Score

1. Hadestown (Music & Lyrics by Anaïs Mitchell)
2. Tootsie (Music & Lyrics by David Yazbek)
3. Be More Chill (Music & Lyrics by Joe Iconis)
4. The Prom (Music by Matthew Sklar, Lyrics by Chad Beguelin)
5. Beetlejuice (Music & Lyrics by Eddie Perfect)
6. To Kill a Mockingbird (Music by Adam Guettel)

If you listened to my pre-nominations podcast episode, you’ll know I was predicting at least one nomination for Best Score to go to a Play.  Adam Guettel’s music for To Kill a Mockingbird got the slot. Hadestown will win the category though.

Best Choreography

1. Warren Carlyle (Kiss Me, Kate)
1. David Neuman (Hadestown)
3. Denis Jones (Tootsie)
4. Sergio Trujillo (Ain’t Too Proud)
4. Camille A. Brown (Choir Boy)

Camille A. Brown’s choreography of Once on This Island was snubbed last year. This year she gets the nomination for choreographing Choir Boy, the second play in the last two years to receive a Best Choreography.  This is a tight one but I think Warren Carlyle will nab the award here – and it could very well be Kiss Me, Kate‘s only victory.

Best Orchestrations

1. Michael Chorney & Todd Sickafoose (Hadestown)
2. Daniel Kluger (Oklahoma!)
3. Harold Wheeler (Ain’t Too Proud)
4. Simon Hale (Tootsie)
5. Larry Hochman (Kiss Me, Kate)

This is going to be Hadestown v. Oklahoma!, with a potential upset by Ain’t Too Proud.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

1. David Korins (Beetlejuice)
2. Rachel Hauk (Hadestown)
3. Laura Jellinek (Oklahoma!)
3. Peter England (King Kong)
5. Robert Brill & Peter Nigrini (Ain’t Too Proud)

Best Scenic Design of a Play

1. Bunny Christie (Ink)
1. Rob Howell (The Ferryman)
3. Jan Versweyveld (Network)
3. Miriam Buether (To Kill a Mockingbird)
5. Santo Loquasto (Gary)

Best Costume Design of a Musical

1. William Ivey Long (Beetlejuice)
1. William Ivey Long (Tootsie)
1. Michael Krass (Hadestown)
4. Paul Tazewell (Ain’t Too Proud)
5. Bob Mackie (The Cher Show)

Best Costume Design of a Play

1. Rob Howell (The Ferryman)
2. Toni-Leslie James (Bernhardt/Hamlet)
3. Clint Ramos (Torch Song)
3. Ann Roth (Gary)
5. Ann Roth (To Kill a Mockingbird)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

1. Bradley King (Hadestown)
1. Peter Mumford (King Kong)
3. Kenneth Posner (Beetlejuice)
4. Howell Binkley (Ain’t Too Proud)
5. Kevin Adams (The Cher Show)

Best Lighting Design of a Play

1. Neil Austin (Ink)
2. Jan Verseyveld & Tal Yarden (Network)
2. Peter Mumford (The Ferryman)
4. Jennifer Tipton (To Kill a Mockingbird)
4. Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer (Gary)

Best Sound Design of a Musical

1. Nevin Steinberg & Jessica Paz (Hadestown)
2. Peter Hylenski (King Kong)
3. Drew Levy (Oklahoma!)
4. Peter Hylenski (Beetlejuice)
5. Steve Canyon Kennedy (Ain’t Too Proud)

Best Sound Design of a Play

1. Nick Powell (The Ferryman)
2. Eric Sleichim (Network)
2. Scott Lehrer (To Kill a Mockingbird)
2. Adam Cork (Ink)
5. Fitz Patton (Choir Boy)