Our approach to predicting the Tony Award winners rests partly on statistical analysis, and partly on our own findings. Ahead of making our final predictions later this week, we publish the odds for each category as dictated by the data.
Best Musical
Hadestown: 41%The Prom: 27%
Tootsie: 17%
Ain’t Too Proud: 8%
Beetlejuice: 6%
Best Play
The Ferryman: 56%What the Constitution Means to Me: 20%
Ink/em>: 10%
Gary: 10%
Choir Boy: 4%
Best Revival of a Musical
Oklahoma!: 52%Kiss Me, Kate: 48%
Best Revival of a Play
The Waverly Gallery: 29%The Boys in the Band: 24%
All My Sons: 18%
Burn This: 17%
Torch Song: 12%
Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Santino Fontana (Tootsie): 46%Brooks Ashmankas (The Prom): 19%
Damon Daunno (Oklahoma!): 14%
Alex Brightman (Beetlejuice): 12%
Derrick Baskins (Ain’t Too Proud): 8%
Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Stephanie J. Block (The Cher Show): 44%Beth Leavel (The Prom): 18%
Eva Noblezada (Hadestown): 17%
Kelli O’Hara (Once on This Island): 13%
Caitlin Kinnunen (The Prom): 8%
Best Leading Actor in a Play
Bryan Cranston (Network): 49%Jeff Daniels (Mockingbird): 18%
Adam Driver (Burn This): 18%
Paddy Considine (The Ferryman): 8%
Jeremy Pope (Choir Boy): 6%
Best Leading Actress in a Play
Elaine May (The Waverly Gallery): 37%Heidi Schreck (What the Constitution Means to Me): 17%
Laurie Metcalf (Hillary and Clinton): 17%
Annette Bening (All My Sons): 14%
Laura Donnelly (The Ferryman): 8%
Janet McTeer (Bernheardt/Hamlet): 6%
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Andre De Shields (Hadestown): 42%Patrick Page (Hadestown): 17%
Ephraim Sykes (Ain’t Too Proud): 15%
Jeremy Pope (Ain’t Too Proud): 15%
Andy Grotelueschen (Tootsie): 11%
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Amber Gray (Hadestown): 34%Ali Stroker (Oklahoma!): 30%
Sarah Stiles (Tootsie/em>): 15%
Mary Testa (Oklahoma!): 12%
Lilli Cooper (Tootsie): 9%
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Benjamin Walker (All My Sons): 25%Brandon Uranowitz (Burn This): 20%
Bertie Carvel (Ink): 19%
Robin De Jesus (The Boys in the Band): 18%
Gideon Glick (To Kill a Mockingbird): 18%
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Celia Keenan-Bolger (To Kill a Mockingbird): 36%Julie White (Gary): 18%
Fionnula Flanagan (The Ferryman): 17%
Kristine Nielsen (Gary): 15%
Ruth Wilson (King Lear): 14%
Best Director of a Musical
Rachel Chavkin (Hadestown):49%Daniel Fish (Oklahoma!): 33%
Scott Ellis (Tootsie): 12%
Casey Nicholaw (The Prom): 4%
Des McAnuff (Ain’t Too Proud): 2%
Best Director of a Play
Sam Mendes (The Ferryman): 58%Bartlett Sher (To Kill a Mockingbird): 12%
Rupert Goold (Ink): 12%
Ivo Van Hove (Network): 9%
George C. Wolfe (Gary): 9%
Best Book of a Musical
Robert Horn (Tootsie): 40%Anaïs Mitchell (Hadestown): 35%
Bob Martin & Chad Beguelin (The Prom): 15%
Dominique Morisseau (Ain’t Too Proud): 6%
Scott Brown & Anthony King (Beetlejuice): 4%
Best Score of a Musical
Hadestown (Music & Lyrics by Anaïs Mitchell): 44%Tootsie (Music & Lyrics by David Yazbek): 30%
Be More Chill (Music & Lyrics by Joe Iconis): 10%
The Prom (Music by Matthew Sklar, Lyrics by Chad Beguelin): 9%
Beetlejuice (Music & Lyrics by Eddie Perfect): 6%
To Kill a Mockingbird (Music by Adam Guettel): 1%
Best Choreography
Warren Carlyle (Kiss Me, Kate): 39%
David Neuman (Hadestown): 24%
Denis Jones (Tootsie): 17%
Sergio Trujillo (Ain’t Too Proud): 14%
Camille A. Brown (Choir Boy): 5%
Best Orchestrations
Daniel Kluger (Oklahoma!): 33%
Michael Chorney & Todd Sickafoose (Hadestown): 25%
Harold Wheeler (Ain’t Too Proud): 17%
Simon Hale (Tootsie): 16%
Larry Hochman (Kiss Me, Kate): 8%
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
David Korins (Beetlejuice): 60%Rachel Hauk (Hadestown): 20%
Laura Jellinek (Oklahoma!):
Peter England (King Kong)
Robert Brill & Peter Nigrini (Ain’t Too Proud)
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Rob Howell (The Ferryman): 29%Bunny Christie (Ink): 28%
Jan Versweyveld (Network): 15%
Miriam Buether (To Kill a Mockingbird): 14%
Santo Loquasto (Gary): 14%
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Bob Mackie (The Cher Show): 38%William Ivey Long (Beetlejuice): 18%
William Ivey Long (Tootsie): 18%
Michael Krass (Hadestown): 15%
Paul Tazewell (Ain’t Too Proud): 11%
Best Costume Design of a Play
Toni-Leslie James (Bernhardt/Hamlet): 35%Rob Howell (The Ferryman): 30%
Clint Ramos (Torch Song): 16%
Ann Roth (Gary): 11%
Ann Roth (To Kill a Mockingbird): 8%
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Bradley King (Hadestown): 82%Peter Mumford (King Kong): 7%
Kenneth Posner (Beetlejuice): 4%
Howell Binkley (Ain’t Too Proud): 4%
Kevin Adams (The Cher Show): 4%
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Neil Austin (Ink): 38%Jan Verseyveld & Tal Yarden (Network): 28%
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer (Gary): 17%
Peter Mumford (The Ferryman): 11%
Jennifer Tipton (To Kill a Mockingbird): 6%
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Nevin Steinberg & Jessica Paz (Hadestown): 28%Peter Hylenski (King Kong): 20%
Peter Hylenski (Beetlejuice): 20%
Steve Canyon Kennedy (Ain’t Too Proud): 16%
Drew Levy (Oklahoma!): 16%
Best Sound Design of a Play
Fitz Patton (Choir Boy): 26%Eric Sleichim (Network): 21%
Nick Powell (The Ferryman): 20%
Scott Lehrer (To Kill a Mockingbird): 17%
Adam Cork (Ink): 16%
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