In case you didn’t know, we’re obsessed with predicting the Tony Awards. We’re getting ready for this year’s unprecedented virtual Tony Award by publishing our predictions for nominations in each category here.
Of course, until the Tony Administration Committee announces the rules and regulations for the 2020 Tony Awards, we cannot be sure of how many nominations we can expect in each category. For now, we indicate how many nominees there would be this year according to last season’s rules.
What we’ve seen this season: A Christmas Carol, American Utopia, Betrayal, Company, Derren Brown: Secret, Frankie and Johnny in the Clair de Lune, Freestyle Love Supreme, Harry Connick, Jr., Jagged Little Pill, Kristin Chenoweth, Moulin Rouge!, Sea Wall/A Life, Slave Play, The Inheritance, The Lightning Thief, The Sound Inside, Tina.
Last Updated: Monday, October 12th, 2020.
Tony Award for Best Musical
[Expect 3 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Moulin Rouge!
On the Bubble
Jagged Little Pill
Tina
Dark Horses
The Lighning Thief
Tony Award for Best Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
The Inheritance
Slave Play
On the Bubble
The Sound Inside
Grand Horizons
A Christmas Carol
Dark Horses
Linda Vista
Sea Wall/A Life
My Name is Lucy Barton
Also Eligible
The Height of the Storm
The Great Society
Tony Award for Best Revival of a Musical
[Expect 0 Nominations. No Eligible Productions. ]Shoo-Ins
—
On the Bubble
—
Dark Horses
—
Tony Award for Best Revival of a Play
[Expect 3 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Betrayal
On the Bubble
A Soldier’s Play
Frankie and Johnny
Dark Horses
The Rose Tattoo
Best Leading Actor in a Musical
[Expect 0 to 2 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Aaron Tveit (Christian, Moulin Rouge!)
On the Bubble
—
Dark Horses
Chris McCarrell (Percy Jackson, Lightning Thief)
Best Leading Actress in a Musical
[Expect 3 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Adrienne Warren (Tina Turner, Tina)
On the Bubble
Karen Olivo (Satine, Moulin Rouge!)
Elisabeth Stanley (Jagged Little Pill)
Dark Horses
Kristin Stokes (Annabeth, The Lightning Thief)
Best Leading Actor in a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Kyle Soller (Eric Glass, The Inheritance)
On the Bubble
Campbell Scott (A Christmas Carol)
Tom Hiddleston (Betrayal)
Charlie Cox (Betrayal)
Michael Shannon (Frankie and Johnny)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Sea Wall/A Life)
Tom Sturridge (Sea Wall/A Life)
Jonathan Pryce (The Height of the Storm)
Dark Horses
Andrew Burnap (The Inheritance)
Samuel H. Levine (The Inheritance)
Will Hochman (The Sound Inside)
Blair Underwood (A Soldier’s Play)
Best Leading Actress in a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Mary-Louise Parker (The Sound Inside)
On the Bubble
Audra McDonald (Frankie and Johnny)
Laura Linney (My Name is Lucy Barton)
Joaquina Kulakango (Slave Play)
Elieen Atkins (The Height of the Storm)
Dark Horses
Zawe Ashton (Betrayal)
Marisa Tomei (The Rose Tattoo)
Best Director of a Musical
[Expect 3 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Alex Timbers (Moulin Rouge!)
On the Bubble
Phyllida Lloyd (Tina)
Diane Paulus (Jagged Little Pill)
Dark Horses
Stephen Brackett (The Lightning Thief)
Best Director of a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Stephen Daldry (The Inheritance)
On the Bubble
Jamie Lloyd (Betrayal)
Robert O’Hara (Slave Play)
David Cromer (The Sound Inside)
Matthew Warchus (A Christmas Carol)
Kenny Leon (A Soldier’s Play)
Dark Horses
Arin Arbus (Frankie and Johnny)
Leigh Silverman (Grand Horizons)
Dexter Bullard (Linda Vista)
Richard Eyre (My Name is Lucy Barton)
Carrie Cracknell (Sea Wall/A Life)
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
[Expect 5 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Danny Burstein (Moulin Rouge!)
On the Bubble
Daniel J. Watts (Tina)
Sahr Ngaujah (Moulin Rouge!)
Derek Klena (Jagged Little Pill)
Antonio Cipriano (Jagged Little Pill)
Dark Horses
Sean Allan Krill (Jagged Little Pill)
Tam Mutu (Moulin Rouge!)
Ricky Rojas (Moulin Rouge!)
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
[Expect 4 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Lauren Patten (Jagged Little Pill)
On the Bubble
Celia Rose Gooding (Jagged Little Pill)
Robyn Hurder (Moulin Rouge!)
Myra Lucretia Taylor (Tina)
Dawnn Lewis (Tina)
Dark Horses
Kathryn Gallagher (Jagged Little Pill)
Best Featured Actor in a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
David Alan Grier (A Soldier’s Play)
On the Bubble
Paul Hilton (The Inheritance)
Paul Alexander Nolan (Slave Play)
Ato Blankson-Wood (Slave Play)
James Cusati-Moyer (Slave Play)
John Benjamin Hickey (The Inheritance)
Dark Horses
Michael Urie (Grand Horizons)
Sullivan Jones (Slave Play)
Best Featured Actress in a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Lois Smith (The Inheritance)
On the Bubble
Annie McNamara (Slave Play)
LaChanze (A Christmas Carol)
Sally Murphy (Linda Vista)
Andrea Martin (A Christmas Carol)
Priscilla Lopez (Grand Horizons)
Ashley Park (Grand Horizons)
Dark Horses
Irene Sofia Lucio (Slave Play)
Chalia La Tour (Slave Play)
Tina Benko (The Rose Tatoo)
Best Book of a Musical
[Expect 3 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Katori Hall, Frank Ketelaar and Kees Prins (Tina)
On the Bubble
Diablo Cody (Jagged Little Pill)
John Logan (Moulin Rouge!)
Dark Horses
Joe Tracz (The Lightning Thief)
Best Original Music
[Expect 4 Nominees, or for the category to be eliminated this year]Shoo-Ins
The Inheritance (Music by Paul Inglishby)
A Christmas Carol (Music by Christopher Nightingale)
On the Bubble
Sea Wall/A Life (Music by Stuart Earl)
Slave Play (Music by Lindsay Jones)
The Rose Tattoo (Music by Jason Michael Webb and Fitz Patton)
Dark Horses
Betrayal (Music by Ben Ringham and Max Ringham)
The Height of the Storm (Music by Gary Yershon)
The Lightning Thief (Music & Lyrics by Rob Rokicki)
Best Choreography
[Expect 3 to 4 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Sonya Tayeh (Moulin Rouge!)
On the Bubble
Sidi Larbi Cherkaoui (Jagged Little Pill)
Anthony Van Laast (Tina)
Lizzi Gee (A Christmas Carol)
Dark Horses
Byron Easley (Slave Play)
Patrick McCollum (The Lightning Thief)
Best Orchestrations
[Expect 3 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Tom Kitt (Jagged Little Pill)
Justin Levine with Matt Stine, Katie Kresek and Charlie Rosen (Moulin Rouge!)
On the Bubble
Ethan Popp (Tina)
Christopher Nightingale (A Christmas Carol)
Dark Horses
Rob Rokicki & Wiley DeWeese (The Lightning Thief)
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
[Expect 3 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Derek McLane (Moulin Rouge!)
On the Bubble
Riccardo Hernández & Lucy Mackinnon (Jagged Little Pill)
Mark Thompson & Jeff Sugg (Tina)
Dark Horses
Lee Savage (The Lightning Thief)
Best Scenic Design of a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Clint Ramos (Grand Horizons)
On the Bubble
Bob Crowley (The Inheritance)
Rob Howell (A Christmas Carol)
Mark Wendland (The Rose Tattoo)
Soutra Gilmour (Betrayal)
Clint Ramos (Slave Play)
David Korins (The Great Society)
Anthony Ward (The Height of the Storm)
Dark Horses
Riccardo Hernandez (Frankie and Johnny)
Alexander Woodward (The Sound Inside)
Derek McLane (A Soldier’s Play)
Todd Rosenthal (Linda Vista)
Best Costume Design of a Musical
[Expect 3 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Catherine Zuber (Moulin Rouge!)
Mark Thompson (Tina)
On the Bubble
Emily Rebholz (Jagged Little Pill)
Dark Horses
Sydney Maresca (The Lightning Thief)
Best Costume Design of a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Rob Howell (A Christmas Carol)
On the Bubble
Dede Ayite (A Soldier’s Play)
Dede Ayite (Slave Play)
Linda Cho (The Great Society)
Bob Crowley (The Inheritance)
Clint Ramos (The Rose Tattoo)
Dark Horses
Soutra Gilmour (Betrayal)
Emily Rebholz (Frankie and Johnny)
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
[Expect 3 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Justin Townsend (Moulin Rouge!)
On the Bubble
Bruno Poet (Tina)
Justin Townsend (Jagged Little Pill)
Dark Horses
David Lander (The Lightning Thief)
Best Lighting Design of a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Heather Gilbert (The Sound Inside)
On the Bubble
Hugh Vanstone (A Christmas Carol)
Jon Clark (The Inheritance)
Jiyoun Chang (Slave Play)
Hugh Vanstone (The Height of the Storm)
Allen Lee Hughes (A Soldier’s Play)
Natasha Katz (Frankie and Johnny)
David Weiner & Victoria Sagady (The Great Society)
Jon Clark (Betrayal)
Dark Horses
Guy Hoare (Sea Wall/A Life)
Ben Stanton & Lucy Mackinnon (The Rose Tattoo)
Marcus Doshi (Linda Vista)
Peter Mumford (My Name is Lucy Barton)
Best Sound Design of a Musical
[Expect 3 Nominees]Shoo-Ins
Peter Hylenski (Moulin Rouge!)
On the Bubble
Nevin Steinberg (Tina)
Jonathan Deans (Jagged Little Pill)
Dark Horses
Ryan Rumery (The Lightning Thief)
Best Sound Design of a Play
[Expect 5 Nominees]
Shoo-Ins
Paul Arditti & Christopher Reid (The Inheritance)
Simon Baker (A Christmas Carol)
On the Bubble
Daniel Kluger (The Sound Inside)
Lindsay Jones (Slave Play)
Max Ringham (Betrayal)
Nevin Steinberg (Frankie and Johnny)
Dark Horses
Dan Moses Schreier (A Soldier’s Play)
Daniel Kluger (Sea Wall/A Life)
John Leonard (My Name is Lucy Barton)
34 comments
Join the conversationToronto39 - December 5, 2019
Moulin Rouge and Six are not Shoo-Ins for best musical. They are very entertaining but not exactly best musical worthy. It will probably come down to Jagged Little Pill and Girl From The North Country as they follow trends in what tony voters have been going for the last decade. I have seen both and give the edge to Jagged Little Pill as it is a well written musical that fuses the songs with the story very well (not just another juke box musical). Girl from the North Country is a bit of a downer and the I found the story(book) a bit weird but it had some wonderful performances. Diana could be a dark horse if it is well written and great new music.
Oliver - December 6, 2019
I have to respectfully disagree. But we’ll just have to wait until april to see what happens!
Also note that things slide in and out of placing throughout the season as shows open, so just because a show is under one category now doesn’t mean that’s where it will be the week of the nominations.
Bill - December 11, 2019
A soldiers play isnt a revival.
Oliver - December 14, 2019
It is correct that A Soldier’s Play has never been on Broadway before, but I am guessing that the Tony Eligibility Committee will rule the production a revival since it premiered Off-Broadway in 1981 and won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama that year.
Tim - December 31, 2019
What are American Buffalo’s chances for Best Revival of a Play? It’s original Broadway run and 1983 revival were both nominated for Tonys and it has a really good cast with Laurence Fishburne, Sam Rockwell, and Darren Criss
Oliver - January 2, 2020
I think American Buffalo is a very solid “on the bubble.” We’ll know more about its chances once it starts previews and people have had a chance to see it.
Alex - January 21, 2020
Just saw Moulin Rouge! and Jagged Little Pill this past weekend. I have to say, I knew I was going to love JLP BUT I had no clue just how impressed I was going to be. Honestly, even more so than I was with MR. I’m really eager to see what this best musical race looks like once the spring openings premier. Personally, I see it being
Six
Moulin Rouge!
Jagged Little Pill
Girl from the North Country
Flying Over Sunset
Oliver - March 10, 2020
I think that is a very good guess of shows. I agree that Six, Moulin Rouge!, Jagged and Girl from the North Country are very likely to be nominated. Flying over Sunset also has a good chance but I don’t think any of those 5 are certain as long as Tina and Sing Street are around as I can see either of those getting nominations as well.
Alex Gubler - March 10, 2020
Now that it’s been a couple of months – I agree. I don’t see North Country being as likely anymore, and Sing Street could definitely swing its way in. What’s going to be interesting is seeing the battle of original scores vs jukebox scores this year. It’s very rare to have more than one jukebox show get a Best Musical nod (my pick would have been MR over TIna or North Country). I loved Tina and obviously Adrienne is giving the MOST sensational performance that Broadway has possibly ever seen – but I don’t think the book of the show holds it up enough for a Best Musical nomination.
Oliver - March 10, 2020
With the reviews Girl from the North Country got, I wouldn’t rule out a nomination at all. But yes – there stands a real chance that 2 or even 3 jukebox musicals get nominations this year because 5 of the 10 eligible productions are Jukebox musicals.
Alex Gubler - March 10, 2020
And I just realized I misspoke, because JLP is also a jukebox. All in all, I don’t see 3 non-original scores holding up for Best Musical. That’s why I see Flying Over Sunset being able to work its way in, and Sing Street pulling the quiet upset.
On an unrelated note – I can’t wait to see how your battle of the Leading Actress in a Musical list turns out. It’s utterly absurd this year
Oliver - March 10, 2020
I just published the Leading Actor/Actress in a Musical categories last night! Stay tuned for the same categories from plays soon.
Allie - February 11, 2020
I love Six, but I honestly think best musical should go to either Moulin Rouge! or Jagged Little Pill (I just saw those shows). I also just saw the West Side Story revival, and while it’s very fresh and a beautiful work, I don’t think it should win best revival. Just my opinion 🙂 but the amount of effort and hard work that goes into each show is incredible! I would hate to have to pick which shows win Tonys! They’re all great!
Oliver - March 10, 2020
I think you are right that SIX, while very likely to get a nomination, is not clearly in the lead for Best Musical. West Side Story is also nearly certain to get a nomination, though I believe COMPANY is more likely to win the award.
Jeremy Lapinig - March 26, 2020
I kindly disagree because SiX should also be up in running to win, because it is a global phenomenon, that when it started in the West End back in 2018 they opened up in Sydney AUS, had multiple tours and cruise ship performances all in under 2 years and now finally on Broadway! Lucy Moss, Toby Marlow, and all the casts and crew have done a phenomenal job on this production
BRAD RUSSELL - February 16, 2020
i saw my first Broadway show in 1958. since that time i have seen more than 100 shows ,some good, some bad, some in between. THE INHERITANCE is by far the finest piece of work i have experienced to date. great writing,suplime acting and memorable direction by the amazing Stephen Daldry.it will break your heart forever. BRAD RUSSELL
Gabe T - February 19, 2020
Me and my sister HATED Moulin Rouge. The set/design was fantastic, but being huge fans of the movie, we felt like the musical was utter crap. As if they tried to fit as many 2000s sounds into the show as they could. It wasn’t good, it was annoying and terrible.
Oliver - March 10, 2020
Moulin Rouge! is very polarizing. Many people agree with you, but a lot of people also think it is a really enjoyable musical. That’s why I think it will do quite well with nominations, but I don’t know how many awards it will take home.
Daniel - February 24, 2020
I heard great things about The Inheritance but now that it is closing early I am left wondering why?
Oliver - March 10, 2020
Hi Daniel, The Inheritance is a fantastic play, but it hasn’t been putting up the grosses that a play of its side needs in order to stay open for a prolonged run.
Michael Davila - March 5, 2020
HANDS DOWN JAGGED LITTLE PILL, just the You Oughta Know number ALONE sent CHILLS down my spine and the entire audience gave a standing ovation for MINUTES.
Oliver - March 10, 2020
We will see! Glad to hear you enjoyed Jagged Little Pill.
William Fitzhugh - March 10, 2020
I wanna see how well Mrs. Doubtfire is received! I believe it will either be a HUGE success or a HUGE flop!
jordan - March 10, 2020
do you think the six queens will be nominated together as featured actresses, like the olivier’s did?
Oliver - March 11, 2020
The Tony Nominating Committee rarely does things like that, whereas SOLT makes a habit of those kinds of Olivier nominations, so I would not expect any grouped nominations.
Leah Jarrell - April 6, 2020
How do Tony awards work with jukebox musicals? Are they still able to be nominated for awards like best orchestrations even though they didn’t write the music?
Oliver - April 16, 2020
Yes – newly orchestrated music is eligible, but those musicals are not eligible for Best Score.
Alice - April 20, 2020
Rachel Berry is a shoo-in for best leading actress in a musical!! 2020 is her year for a Tony!
Alejandro - April 21, 2020
Hey! What musicals/plays are being considered for Best Score. Which do you think has a high chance? Also, has a play ever won Best Score?
El - May 26, 2020
I know that we don’t know what will happen at the Tonys this year but do you think Derek Klena might be nominated for JLP? I would guess he would be considered in Best Featured Actor in a Musical.
Oliver - May 26, 2020
Hypothetically, yes. Derek could be nominated for JLP. Until we know what the nominating procedure will be and what shows are eligible.
Albertrup - January 16, 2022
Wonderful!
Michaelbix - January 16, 2022
Useful topic
Chesterfrive - January 19, 2022
It agree, the remarkable information
Tennis & Theater – The New York Times
“An Upset,” a one-act play by David Auburn first seen in New York in 2008, is being revived around the city timed to the Open, including three shows at 99 Bowery beginning Sept. 12.
“It’s always hard to put a finger on why something is suddenly in the zeitgeist,” said Ruhl, a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist and a Tony Award nominee. “I don’t know why it is happening with tennis in theater right now. But for me, while researching the Bush dynasty, I realized tennis is such a big part of their lives and a wonderful metaphor for family competition and sibling rivalry.”
In “Scenes From Court Life,” Greg Keller plays George W. Bush as a more shrewd politician than his brother Jeb but an inferior tennis player.
“Athletes are almost another species to playwrights,” Keller said. “The writer’s world is so subjective, but for athletes there is always a winner and a loser.”
Tennis holds undeniable appeal for the theater. For starters, it can encompass widely different settings, including the Bush family compound, the public courts of the Lower East Side and Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Tennis, Keller said, is also “one-on-one, but you are not physically touching each other like in boxing.”
He added, “You are in your own little world.”
Bragen has written other works about tennis, including a monologue called “Game, Set, Match.” He said the sport offered intimacy and isolation — great fodder for writers.
“There’s a kind of dance that I feel as a player, but you are alone in your own head at the same time you are connected to other person,” Bragen said.
Ruhl said she liked the combat mixed with decorum, “the formality within the structure of competition.”
Ryan Sweeney, who played Division I tennis at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and is producing and starring in “An Upset,” said, “Tennis is a lonely sport, and Auburn’s script touches on the players’ vulnerabilities.”
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Kinky Boots – Tony Awards
Wins
Best Musical
Best Original Score [Cyndi Lauper]
Best Actor in a Musical [Billy Porter]
Best Sound Design of a Musical [John Shivers]
Best Choreography [Jerry Mitchell]
Best Orchestrations [Stephen Oremus]
Nominations
Best Book of a Musical [Harvey Fierstein]
Best Actor in a Musical [Stark Sands]
Best Featured Actress in a Musical [Annaleigh Ashford]
Best Scenic Design of a Musical [David Rockwell]
Best Costume Design of a Musical [Gregg Barnes]
Best Lighting Design of a Musical [Kenneth Posner]
Best Direction of a Musical [Jerry Mitchell]