Blog

Latest News and Updates

06-15-tony-01.jpg

Handicapping the Tony Race Part 1: At the Gate

Last Saturday, American Pharaoh, who was favored 3 to 1, won the Kentucky Derby.  On the Tuesday before, the Tony Awards, a markedly different event than the Kentucky Derby, announced the nominations for the 69th Annual Tony Awards.

While the Tonys are no horse race, there are still clear favorites, and long shots in the Tony race.  Between now and the Tony broadcast (Sunday, June 7th @8PM EST), we will provide analysis on where the nominees of each category stand.

We start today with an analysis of how the nominees are looking just out of the gate.

Where We Are

Currently: 1 Week after Tony Nominees Announcement
Last Assessment: 4/27/15 – Pre-Nomination Announcement

Best Musical

2015 Best Musical Tony Award Competition OHenry Productions

In the Best Musical category, two nominees, An American in Paris and Fun Home, have positioned themselves as slight leads.  Each of these productions earned a total of 12 Tony nominations, more than their Best Musical competition, Something Rotten! (10) and The Visit (5).  They were also the most well-reviewed of the Best Musical nominees.

There’s plenty of room for movement in the coming weeks, and we expect it to be anybody’s game until Tony night.

Best Play

2015 Best Play Competition OHenry Productions

The Best Play category is a fun and diverse one.  Two British plays, two American plays.  One Olivier Award winner, one Olivier Award nominee, one Pulitzer Prize winner, and one bad-mouthed puppet.  First, let’s clarify which is which:

Disgraced (Ayad Akhtar) – 2013 Pulitzer Prize Winner, American

Hand to God (Robert Askins) – 2012 John Gassner Playwriting Award Nominee (OCC), American, bad-mouthed puppet

Wolf Hall, Parts One & Two (Hilary Mantel & Mike Poulton) – 2015 Oliver Award Nominee, British

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (Simon Stephens) – 2013 Olivier Award Winner, British

As of right now, we have Curious Incident in the lead, followed closely by Wolf Hall, Parts One & Two.

The American nominees better get their act together!  Hand to God is the most likely American candidate to do so, as it is still running (unlike Disgraced).  It also had no Olivier Awards to flaunt going into the nominations announcement, which made it harder for Hand to God‘s producers to place it on the map.  They now have 5 Tony nods to help level the playing field.

Disgraced is the long shot, but we aren’t ruling it out just yet.  The fact that it is the only nomination that isn’t still open is a major disadvantage, but it does have the Pulitzer, and is scheduled to tour next season.

Best Revival of a Musical

2015 tony award for musical revival graph

The King and I is the clear lead in the Best Revival of a Musical category.  It lead the category in nominations (9), and, as discussed in last week’s pre-nomination analysis, Lincoln Center is already two for two in winning the Best Revival Tony for Rodgers & Hammerstein musicals (Carousel ’94 & South Pacific ’08).

The other two nominees, On the Town, and Roundabout’s On the Twentieth Century, are neck-and-neck for second place.  Unfortunately, second place doesn’t count in the Tony race, so we expect these productions will pull out all the shots in the coming weeks in an attempt to take down the King (and I).

Best Revival of a Play

2015 tony award for best play revival graph

Play Revival is a loaded category this year, and we expect there to be movement within it in the coming weeks.  At this point, This is Our Youth is the outside bet, but not necessarily a bad one.  Skylight and The Elephant Man are both favored at 1/2 (shout out to any horse betting/thespian crossovers), with You Can’t Take It With You close behind.

Lead Actor in a Musical

2015 best actor tony graph

Michael Cerveris is the front runner in this year’s Tony race.  He already has an Outer Critics Circle Award for his performance as Bruce Bechdel in Fun Home, which gives him a well deserved early lead.

Close behind Cerveris are Brian d’Arcy James of Something Rotten!, and Robert Fairchild of An American in Paris.  Both of whom, like Cerveris, are playing leads in a Best Musical nominated production.

At the bottom of the pack are Tony Yazbeck of On the Town, and Ken Watanabe of The King and I, in that order.  These two actors play the lead in Best Revival of a Musical nominated productions.  There is a sizable gap separating the new musical leads from the revival leads, and we don’t expect that to change.

Lead Actress in a Musical
2015 best actress musical 5-5-15

Lead Actress in a Musical is a battle between three musical theater icons and two newer faces.

Kristen Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century), who is both a nominee, and this year’s Tony Awards co-host, holds a slight lead in the Lead Actress category.  She is joined at the top by 6 time Tony nominee Kelli O’Hara (The King and I), and 10 time Tony nominee Chita Rivera (The Visit).  O’Hara has yet to win a Tony, while Rivera has two wins under her belt.

Broadway newcomer, Leanne Cope (An American in Paris), isn’t far behind the three divas, though it’s hard to tell at this point if her rookie status will help separate her from the competition, or make her easy for Tony voters to ignore.

Beth Malone (Fun Home) is the dark horse.  She isn’t a Broadway icon, nor is she a first-timer.  However, her performance is sensational,  and she has arguably the toughest job of any of the five nominees, leading a cast of only eight others, and playing the main character, and narrator of one of this years Best Musical nominees.

Lead Actor in a Play

lead actor in a play 5.6.15

None of the nominees for Lead Actor in a Play has a significant lead so far.  A case could easily be made that it is the most competitive category this year.  The nominees consist of Academy Award Nominee Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man), Golden Globe & BAFTA Award Winner Bill Nighy (Skylight), Theatre World Award Winner Ben Miles (Wolf Hall), OBIE Award Winner Steven Boyer (Hand to God), and a debut performance by Alex Sharp (Curious Incident) that has had all of broadway buzzing since October.

We’re calling Bradley Cooper and Alex Sharp as favorites at this point, but their lead is very, very slight.  Likewise, we’d place Bill Nighy at the back of the pack by a slight margin.

Lead Actress in a Play

2015 best leading actress play 5.5.15

Helen Mirren (The Audience) has already won an Oscar and Olivier award for playing Queen Elizabeth II.  It’s hard to dispute that she is the early frontrunner in this race.

Unless something big happens between now and Tony night, the only nominee that we think has a shot at beating Mirren is Carey Mulligan, who gives a rousing performance as Kyra Hollins, opposite Bill Nighy, in Skylight.

Sitting in the middle of the pack are Elisabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles) and Ruth Wilson (Constellations).  They are followed by Geneva Carr, who is making her Broadway debut in Hand to God.  Carr is an extremely talented actress who gives a performance that shouldn’t be missed, but winning the Tony in a category full of household names is unlikely.

NEXT (featured, direction, choreography)>>>

OliverHandicapping the Tony Race Part 1: At the Gate
Share this post

2 comments

Join the conversation
  • mercy killing - May 19, 2015 reply

    It’s really a cool and useful piece of information. I’m glad that you simply shared this useful info with us.
    Please keep us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

  • Cbr - February 27, 2016 reply

    I drop a leave a response whnveeer I especially enjoy a article on a website or I have something to contribute to the conversation. Usually it is triggered by the fire displayed in the article I browsed. And after this post Mindset of Millionaires Check out the powerful secrets from Tony | Mindset of Millionaires. I was actually moved enough to drop a comment I do have some questions for you if you tend not to mind. Is it only me or do a few of the responses come across like coming from brain dead people? And, if you are posting at other places, I would like to keep up with anything new you have to post. Could you list all of all your communal pages like your linkedin profile, Facebook page or twitter feed?

Join the conversation

Related Posts