**Updated with Nominees**

Nominees Indicated in BLUE

 

 

How’d we do? Pretty well!
44 out of 46 Shoe-Ins Nominated.
Only 8 Nominees left off of 107 total

It’s Tony-Time! Bruce Willis and Mary-Louise Parker will announce the Nominees of the 69th annual Tony Awards on Tuesday, April 28th at 8:30am. Some productions and performances already feel like absolute locks, while others are holding their breath until Tuesday morning to learn their fate.  Who has the nod in their pocket, which are on the bubble, and what dark horses may hear their name read Tuesday morning?  We take a look at how the contenders stand right now, taking into account reviews, box-office performance, previous nods (Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk), and Broadway buzz.  

For the four “Best Production” awards and four “Leading Actor/Actress” awards, we’ve provided a detailed analysis of the candidates’ standing.  For the other categories, which have much larger pools of eligible candidates, we skipped the details and cut straight to our predictions. 

Best Musical

Shoe-Ins
Fun Home – Many have been eying Fun Home for the Best Musical Tony since it’s debut at the Public Theater last year.  The Off-Broadway production won best new musical at the Lortel, New York Drama Critics’ Circle, Outer Critics Circle, Obie, and Off Broadway Alliance Awards. It got nominations from all 7 award shows recognizing Off-Broadway work, with a collective 8 wins in 31 nominations.  It was also a finalist for the 2014 Pulitzer Prize for Drama.

Something Rotten! – Something Rotten has been receiving a tremendous amount of buzz from the theater community since it was first announced.  This buzz is not unwarranted, as Something Rotten!’s creative team includes all-stars such as Producer, Kevin McCollum (Rent, Private Lives, Avenue Q, In the Heights), and Director/Choreographer, Casey Nicholaw (The Drowsy Chaperone, The Book of Mormon, Aladdin).  On top of the hype, Something Rotten! picked up nominations for Best New Musical from the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk Awards, though it was not well reviewed by Ben Brantley of the New York Times.

On the Bubble
An American in Paris – With nominations from the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk, we wouldn’t be surprised if An American In Paris received a nod on Tuesday.  The show also got  positive reviews and has been doing very well at the box-office.

The Visit – The Visit picked up nods from the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk but making it into the Tony race is not guaranteed for this small, dark musical.  The creatives associated with the piece are huge names (Music and Lyrics by John Kander & Fred Ebb, Book by Terrance McNally), but The Visit doesn’t have the universal appeal of the other contenders, which may prevent it from getting the nomination.

Dark-Horses
Finding Neverland – Finding Neverland has been a huge box-office success thus far.  Though it didn’t get great reviews, it did pick up a nomination for Outstanding Production of a Musical from the Drama League.  Having Hollywood big-wig Harvey Weinstein as a producer also doesn’t hurt.

Honeymoon in Vegas – Though it had a short run, Honeymoon in Vegas was praised by almost everyone in the theater world, including reviewers.  Jason Robert Brown, the show’s composer, won Tonys last year for Best Original Score and Best Orchestrations on The Bridges of Madison County, though the production itself did not receive a nomination for Best Musical.

What’s Left
Doctor Zhivago, Holler If Ya Hear Me, It Shoulda Been You, The Last Ship

Best Play

Shoe-Ins
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time – This London transfer arrived to New York having already won the Olivier Award for Best New Play back in 2013.  Last   week, Curious Incident was nominated for Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk awards.  The show is stunning, and moreover has already been a financial success, recouping back in January of this year. 

Hand to God – Robert Ashkin’s Hand to God is the laugh-out-loud show of the season.  It had two previous productions, one at MCC Theater and one at Ensemble Studio Theatre, each of which received nominations from Off-Broadway Award shows.  Together, the three productions have garnered nominations from the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, Lortel, Obie, and Drama Desk Awards, and odds are that on Tuesday it will add a Tony Nomination to the list.

On the Bubble
Disgraced – This Pulitzer Prize winning play may not have done great at the box-office, but it got great reviews and will be going on tour next season, making it ripe for a tony nomination on Tuesday.

Wolf Hall (Parts 1 & 2) – Wolf Hall was nominated for an Olivier this year, though it lost to Broadway-bound King Charles III.  It also received nominations from the Outer Critics Circle and Drama League.

Dark Horses
The Audience – Nominated for a 2013 Olivier for Best New Play, and starring Helen Mirren, we aren’t writing it off.

Constellations – MTC’s smash-hit of the season was Constellations starring Ruth Wilson and Jake Gyllenhall. 

The River – This Jez Butterworth (Jerusalem) play was a huge box-office success starring  Broadway favorite, and 2014 Tony Awards Host, Hugh Jackman.

What’s Left
Airline Highway, The Country House, Fish in the Dark, Living on Love

Best Revival of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
The King and I – Lincoln Center is undefeated in Tony wins for revivals of Rodgers & Hammerstein musicals.  They won the Tony for Best Revival in 1994 for their production of Carousel, and in 2008 for their production of South Pacific, which was also directed by The King and I director, Bartlett Sher.

On The Town – This production was the first musical to open in the Fall, and, unlike the other Fall musicals, is still open.  The length of the run and good reviews make it a no-doubt nomination this year.

On the Twentieth Century – Roundabout’s production of On The Twentieth Century was universally praised by reviewers and theatergoers this season, though if for some reason one of the three shoe-ins doesn’t make it, it will be On the Twentieth Century.

On the Bubble
Side Show – The production received praise from the theater community, but unfortunately didn’t have the public appeal to stay open for long.  It will likely get a nod for re-imagining a cult favorite though.

Dark Horse
Gigi – There are so many great productions in the Best Revival category this year.  Gigi, which did not get good reviews, nor any nominations from other awards organizations, is going to have a tough time making it into the ring.  However, we aren’t writing off the possibility, especially considering that it could use the Tony-bump, and is a revival you can bring your whole family to.

Best Revival of a Play

Shoe-Ins
The Elephant Man – Visually stunning. Hard hitting. Bradley Cooper. It got nods from the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk, and it’ll get a nod from the Tonys on Tuesday.

Skylight – Magnificent dramatic piece from London where it was nominated for a 2015 Olivier for Best Revival.  The current Broadway production was nominated for Outer Critics Circle and Drama League awards.

On the Bubble
A Delicate Balance – Written by Edward Albee, directed by Pam McKinnon, and starring Glen Close, John Lithgow, Bob Balaban, Lindsay Duncan, Clare Higgins & Martha Plimpton.  This revival is sure to be given a close look by the Nominating Committee.

The Heidi Chronicles – While not a huge hit at the box-office, Heidi got great reviews and is the first Broadway revival of this Pulitzer Prize winning American play.  It also picked up nominations in two of the three previously announced theater awards.

You Can’t Take it With You – This often produced comedy had its first Broadway revival since 1984 this Fall.  It got a rave review from the New York Times, and nominations from the Outer Critics Circle and Drama League.

Dark Horses
It’s Only a Play – It’s lasted a long time for a revival, largely due to the all-star cast, five cast replacements (where one of those was putting Nathan Lane back in), and a switch in theatres.

This is Our Youth – Many people may have forgotten this Steppenwolf production by now, but I’m willing to bet the Nominating Committee pays it lip-service, if not also giving it a nod.

What’s Left
Love Letters, The Real Thing

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Michael Cerveris (Fun Home) – He’s won for Featured Actor (Assassins), but lost both of his previous lead actor nominations (Sweeney Todd, LoveMusik).  His performance as patriarch, Bruce Bechdel, in Fun Home, is sensational and sure to get him another nomination.

On the Bubble
Brian d’Arcy James (Something Rotten!) – James is hilarious as Nick Bottom, a 1590s playwright competing with Shakespeare.

Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris) – He’s already picked up Outer Critics, Drama League, and Drama Desk Award Nominations for his role as Jerry Mulligan, an additional Tony Nomination seems likely.

Ken Watanabe (The King and I) – Though snubbed by the other award organizations, Ken Watanabe’s Broadway debut as The King of Siam is definitely a contender in the Tony race.

Tony Yazbeck (On the Town) – Yazbeck’s performance as Gabey demonstrates his ability to act, sing, and boy, oh, boy can he dance.

Dark Horses
Peter Gallagher (On the Twentieth Century) – The last musical Gallagher was in was back in 1992, when he played Sky Masterson in Guys and Dolls.  He picked up a Drama Desk nomination for that performance, but no Tony nod.  His performance as Oscar Jaffe in On the Twentieth Century may be the performance that gets him the nomination.

Rob McClure (Honeymoon in Vegas) – Rob McClure was nominated for a Tony Award in 2013 for playing Charlie Chaplin in Chaplin, a musical that had closed by the time Tony Nominations came out.  He could potentially pull off the same feat with his performance as Jack Singer in Honeymoon in Vegas.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century) – Kristin Chenoweth is, without a doubt, a very ‘popular’ Broadway actress who already has a Tony for supporting in You’re A Good Man Charlie Brown, but lost her shot at Best Actress to co-star Idina Menzel in Wicked.  There’s a good chance she will get another shot in the category with a nomination c for her role as Lily Garland.

Kelli O’Hara (The King and I) – She’s due for a Tony.  Her performance as Anna Leonowens is sure to add a sixth nomination to her resume (and we hope this time, maybe even a win!).

On the Bubble
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris) – Cope’s Lise Dassin has already earned herself nominations from the Outer Critics Circle , Drama League, and Drama Desk Awards.

Lisa Howard (It Shoulda Been You) – Howard’s performance as Jenny Steinberg was nominated for Drama League and Drama Desk Awards, and is a certain contender for a Tony nod.

Beth Malone (Fun Home) – Beth Malone’s performance as Alison is a knock-out, heart-wrenching performance that should earn her a nod.

Chita Rivera (The Visit) – This 82-year-old Broadway idol is spending 8 shows a week dancing and singing on a Broadway stage.  If that’s not nod-worthy, we’re not sure what is.

Dark Horses
Vanessa Hudgens (Gigi) – Many expected Hudgens, who is known for her role as Gabriella Montez in the High School Musical series, to fall flat on her face when performing in front of a live audience as Gigi.  On the contrary, we think Hudgens plays the house well, and could make it into the category if the Nominating Committee agrees.

Best Leading Actor in a Play

Shoe-Ins
Steven Boyer (Hand to God) – Steven Boyer’s performance playing Sunday school student, Jason, and his sock puppet, Tyrone, is sensational.  We wouldn’t be surprised if he had sold his soul to the devil.

Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man) – Bradley Cooper has played John Merrick on and off since his days as an MFA student at The New School.  His physical mastery of the role alone deserves a Tony nod.

Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time) – Ben Brantley of the New York Times described Sharp’s performance as Christopher as “the kind of smashing Broadway debut young actors classically dream about.”  That’s the kind of notice young actors classically dream about, and we’re betting he will top it all off with a Tony nod.

On the Bubble
Jake Gyllenhaal (Constellations) – Gyllenhall never left the stage during his incredible performance as Roland in MTC’s Constellations.

Hugh Jackman (The River) – Jackman’s performance as ‘The Man’ got people rushing to the Circle in the Square box-office.  He also hosted last years Tonys, so they may owe him a nod at this year’s awards.

Nathan Lane (It’s Only a Play) – Nathan Lane is such an icon on Broadway, we would never rule him out for a Tony nomination when he’s eligible.  Which, playing actor James Wicker in It’s Only a Play, he is.

Ben Miles (Wolf Hall: Parts 1 & 2) – A strong performance, decent reviews, and nominations from the other awards organizations make Miles’ performance as Thomas Cromwell a likely contender for the Tony.

Bill Nighy (Skylight) – Nighy picked up a Drama League nomination for his sensational performance as Tom Sergeant, and he’s sure to be a talking point at the Nominating Committee meeting.

Dark Horses
Kieran Culkin (This is Our Youth) – Culkin’s Dennis Ziegler wasn’t the most talked about performance of the year, but he was standout in a small, three character piece.

Douglas Sills (Living on Love) – Sills’ comedic timing and physical comedy are exceptional as Vito De Angelis.  He’s got some fierce competition, but it’s not impossible for him to sneak his way into the category.

Best Leading Actress in a Play

Shoe-Ins
Helen Mirren (The Audience) – Mirren already has an Olivier and an Oscar for performances as Queen Elizabeth II, no question she’ll be given a shot at the Tony.

Carey Mulligan (Skylight) – In 2009, Mulligan got a Drama Desk nomination for her performance in The Seagull, but no Tony love.  This year, she was nominated for a Drama Desk for her performance as Kyra Hollis, and we think this time she’ll get the Tony nod as well.

On the Bubble
Geneva Carr (Hand to God) – Carr plays Jason’s Mother and Sunday school teacher, Margery, in an uproarious performance that will very possibly get her a Tony nomination in her Broadway debut.

Elisabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles) – Moss’s Heidi received praise from reviewers, and an Outer Critics Circle and Drama League nomination.  She’s definitely on the short list for a Tony nod.

Ruth Wilson (Constellations) – Wilson made her Broadway debut this year as Marianne in MTC’s Constellations.  The chemistry between Wilson and her co-star, Jake Gyllenhaal, is palpable as the two remain on stage for the entirety of the play.

Dark Horse
Blythe Danner (The Country House) – Her performance as matriarch Anna Patterson in MTC’s The Country House wasn’t the most buzzed about performance of the season, but if anyone is going to pull off an unpredicted nomination, it’s probably going to be Danner.

Rapid-Fire Time…

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!)
Andy Karl (On the Twentieth Century)

On the Bubble
Jimmy Nail (The Last Ship)
Paul Alexander Nolan (Doctor Zhivago)
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!)

Dark Horses
Kelsey Grammer (Finding Neverland)
Jay Armstrong Johnson (On the Town)

What We Missed
Brandon Uranowitz (An American in Paris)
Max von Essen (An American in Paris)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Judy Kuhn (Fun Home)

On the Bubble
Heidi Blickenstaff (Something Rotten!)
Victoria Clark (Gigi)
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home)
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I)

Dark Horses
Emily Skeggs (Fun Home)
Alyssa Umphress (On the Town)

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Shoe-Ins
Richard McCabe (The Audience)
Nathaniel Parker (Wolfd Hall: Parts 1 & 2)

On the Bubble
F. Murray Abraham (It’s Only a Play)
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway)
James Earl Jones (You Can’t Take it with You)
Bryce Pinkham (The Heidi Chronicles)
Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man)

Dark Horses
Matthew Beard (Skylight)
Rupert Grint (It’s Only a Play)
Mark Linn-Baker (You Can’t Take It with You)

What We Missed
Micah Stock (It’s Only a Play)

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Shoe-Ins
Annaleigh Ashford (You Can’t Take It with You)
Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall: Parts 1 & 2)

On the Bubble
Patricia Clarkson (The Elephant Man)
Julie Halston (You Can’t Take It with You)
Kristine Nielsen (You Can’t Take It with You)
Julie White (Airline Highway)

Dark Horses
Stockard Channing (It’s Only A Play)
Sarah Stiles (Hand to God)

Best Direction of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Sam Gold (Fun Home)
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!)

On the Bubble
Bartlett Sher (The King and I)
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)
John Doyle (The Visit)

Dark Horses
Bill Condon (Side Show)
John Rando (On the Town)

Best Direction of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Marianne Elliot (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall: Parts 1 & 2)

On the Bubble
Stephen Daldry (Skylight)
Scott Ellis (The Elephant Man)
Scott Ellis (You Can’t Take It with You)
Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God)

Dark Horse
Michael Longhurst (Constellations)
Kimberly Senior (Disgraced)

Best Choreography

Shoe-Ins
Joshua Bergasse (On the Town)
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)

On the Bubble
Joshua Bergasse (Gigi)
Warren Carlyle (On the Twentieth Century)
Christopher Gattelli (The King and I)
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!)

Dark Horses
Steven Hoggett (The Last Ship)
Mia Michaels (Finding Neverland)

What We Missed
Scott Graham & Steven Hoggett for Frantic Assembly (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

Best Book of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Karey Kirkpatrick & John O’Farrel (Something Rotten!)
Lisa Kron (Fun Home)

On the Bubble
John Logan & Brian Yorkey (The Last Ship)
Craig Lucas (An American in Paris)
Terrence McNally (The Visit)

Dark Horses
Brian Hargrove (It Shoulda Been You)

Best Original Score

Shoe-Ins
Wayne Kirkpatrick & Karey Kirkpatrick (Something Rotten!)
Jeanine Tesori & Lisa Kron (Fun Home)

On the Bubble
Jason Robert Brown (Honeymoon in Vegas)
John Kander & Fred Ebb (The Visit)

Dark Horses
Sting (The Last Ship)
Gary Barlow & Eliot Kennedy (Finding Neverland)

Best Orchestrations

Shoe-Ins
Christopher Austin, Don Sebesky, Bill Elliott (An American in Paris)

On the Bubble
Larry Hochman (Something Rotten!)
Larry Hochman (The Visit)
Rob Mathes (The Last Ship)
Don Sebesky, Larry Blank, Jason Robert Brown & Charlie Rosen (Honeymoon in Vegas)

Dark Horse
Simon Hale (Finding Neverland)
John Clancy (Fun Home)

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Bob Crowley & 59 Productions (An American in Paris)
Scott Pask (Something Rotten!)

On the Bubble
David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century)
Scott Pask (The Visit)
Michael Yeargan (The King and I)
David Zinn (Fun Home)

Dark Horses
Scott Pask (Finding Neverland)
David Zinn (The Last Ship)

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Beowulf Boritt (Hand to God)
Bunny Christie & Finn Ross (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

On the Bubble
Tom Scutt (Constellations)
John Lee Beatty (Disgraced)
Scott Pask(Airline Highway)
Ultz(The River)

Dark Horses
John Lee Beatty (The Country House)
John Lee Beatty (The Heidi Chronicles)
Bob Crowley (Skylight)

What We Missed
Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall, Parts 1 & 2)
David Rockwell (You Can’t Take It with You)

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Gregg Barnes (Something Rotten!)
Bob Crowley (An American in Paris)

On the Bubble
Catherine Zuber (Gigi)
Catherine Zuber (The King and I)

Dark Horses
Paul Tazewell (Doctor Zhivago)
Paul Tazewell (Side Show)

What We Missed
William Ivey Long (On the Twentieth Century)

Best Costume Design of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Bob Crowley (The Audience)
Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall: Parts 1 & 2)

On the Bubble
Jane Greenwood (You Can’t Take It with You)
Jessica Pabst (The Heidi Chronicles)
Nancy Palmatier (The Audience)
David Zinn (Airline Highway)

Dark Horse
Michael Krass (Living on Love)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Natasha Katz (An American in Paris)
Japhy Weideman (The Visit)

On the Bubble
David Holder (The King and I)
Ben Stanton (Fun Home)

Dark Horses
Jeff Croiter (Something Rotten!)
Kenneth Posner (Finding Neverland)

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Paule Constable (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

On the Bubble
Charles Balfour (The River)
Lee Curran (Constellations)
Paule Constable & David Plater (Wolf Hall: Parts 1 & 2)
Rick Fisher (The Audience)

Dark Horses
Natasha Katz (Skylight)
Kenneth Posner (Disgraced)

What We Missed
Japhy Weideman (Airline Highway)

Those are our Tony Nomination predictions.  What do you think?  Did we leave out your favorites? Let us know in a comment!

Be sure to check back on Tuesday morning to see how we did when we publish the full list of Tony nominations.