If you’ve listened to Episode 1 of the OHenry Report Podcast, you know I’m biting my nails over the Lead Actor in a Musical category.  Why? Because you have two Hamilton stars (Lin Manuel-Miranda & Leslie Odom, Jr.), a newbie knockout (Alex Brightman), a broadway-inclined TV star (Zachary Levi), and a Veteran with no Tonys to his name (Danny Burstein) all vying for the win.

Exiting the Richard Rodgers Theatre this September, I thought Leslie Odom, Jr. had the Lead Actor Tony in the bag.  Then I saw School of Rock, and thought Alex Brightman could easily win the award if Lin stole too many votes away from Leslie.  Though Burstein was clearly going to be nominated, I did not think Tevye was going to be the role that earned him the Tony. (Side Note: this also meant we entered the Spring season with 4 of the 5 nominees pretty firmly set, an interesting feat which I talked about back in March).

Recently, a different story has been playing out – one which I believe may see Burstein taking home the hardware on Tony night.  Let’s take a look at where this surge is coming from.

(1) He’s the Default

Burstein has been in 16 Broadway productions, and has received Tony nominations for 6 of these performances. Though he has won a Drama Desk award for his portrayal of Buddy Plummer in the 2011 revival of Follies, he has yet to win a Tony. He’s also playing one of Musical Theater’s most well known and esteemed roles. On paper, he’s our most eligible bachelor. While the others have to earn the vote, Burstein will get a vote from anyone who wasn’t wowed by the others’ performances. He no doubt will wow voters too, but he honestly doesn’t need to.

We saw the same situation play out last year, when Kelli O’Hara, a 6-time Tony Nominee with no previous wins, took home the award for Lead Actress in a Musical for The King and I, even though many agreed it was not her best performance. History repeats itself (it also apparently has its eyes on you).

(2) The Hamilton Divide

What happens when two phenomenal nominees from the same show face off against one another? Ask Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas from 2015’s Fun Home. They split the vote, and make it a lot easier for the person in second or third to pull off a victory.
At first, I did not think Lin would take a ton of votes away from Leslie. All but handfull of voters will be checking the box next to Lin Manuel-Miranda’s name for Best Original Score and Best Book, so it’s not like Broadway’s New Messiah is going to walk away empty handed if he doesn’t win for Lead Actor. But then Lin won the Drama League Award for Distinguished Performance. I don’t think the award was truthfully given to him exclusively for his performance, but the fact remains that he beat out Danny Burstein, Alex Brightman & Zachary Levi (Odom, Jr. was not nominated) in what is supposed to be a performance award. That’s a good indication that he’s gonna pick up more than a few votes for the Lead Actor Tony.

(3) Brightman isn’t gaining traction

I thought for sure that among those who were adamant about voting against Hamilton in this category, there would be a split between those who wanted to see the award go to a Broadway veteran like Burstein, or a newcomer like Alex Brightman. I’m not seeing much hype for Brightman however, at least not nearly enough to rob Burstein of enough votes to keep him from winning.  Burstein beat Brightman out at the Outer Critics Circle Awards just a few weeks ago.

(4) Gunning for Ham

Michael Riedel of the New York Post reported earlier this week that in his conversations with Tony Voters, he has found there are some anti-hamilton grumblings – people who are actively against Hamilton walking away with “too many” awards. The Lead Actor category is an easy one to find justification in voting against Hamilton, especially if you are voting for Burstein.

I love Danny Burstein, and find him to be an exceptional actor.  However, I truly do not think his performance in  Fiddler is the best of the season, compared to the exceptional actors who are originating their roles for the stage.  Leslie Odom, Jr. and Alex Brightman are, to me, the only acceptable performances to vote for this year.