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Early Predictions – Possible Tony Nominations for Shows this Season

UPDATE: See our predictions & the full list of nominees

Click here to view our complete coverage of the 2016 Tony Awards

Last year, we correctly predicted 22 of the 24 Tony Award winners, more than any other theater publication. This year, we are starting our Tony Awards analysis early. While the awards won’t be announced until June 5th, we are going to go through each show we have had the pleasure of seeing, and indicate which awards we feel they might be nominated for in April. We will continue to update this page as we see new shows.

Fiddler on the Roof

November 24, 2015

Revival of a Musical
Actor in a Leading Role: Danny Burnstein (Tevye)
Director: Bartlett Sher
Choreography: Hofesh Shechter
Costume Design: Catherine Zuber

OliverEarly Predictions – Possible Tony Nominations for Shows this Season
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  • Gail Ryder - January 8, 2016 reply

    Why isn’t A View From the Bridge on this list yet? It is in the top ten of finest Broadway shows I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a lot of shows. The direction, acting and setting were absolutely stunning.

    Oliver - January 18, 2016 reply

    Hey Gail, A View From the Bridge isn’t on there because I haven’t seen it yet! Rest assured, it will be included as soon as I see it.

  • Carmine - March 28, 2016 reply

    Why wouldn’t the Voice of Moritz, Alex Boniello be considered, whereas Katie Boeck, the Voice of Wendla is? Also, why isn;t Sandra given consideration for actress lead?

    As the Voice of Moritz, Alex had to sing, play guitar, act, move props, give numerous prompts, had to learn sign language…

    Oliver - April 21, 2016 reply

    Hi Carmine,

    Alex gave an unbelievable performance as the Voice of Moritz, for sure. The reason I did not include him on this list is that the field for Best Actor in a Featured Role of a Musical this year is EXTREMELY competitive, and, to be honest, Alex’s chances of breaking into the already really crowded pack for his performance in a musical which has already closed are really slim. You are going to have 2-3 nominees from Hamilton (Daveed & Chris Jackson both being locks), and probably one from the highly stacked and talented Shuffle Along cast. That leaves only one, or POSSIBLY two (in the case of a tie as happened last year) open slots for a dark horse like Alex to make it into the race, and with the talent we are seeing this spring, I think Alex is going to have a rough time breaking into the list of nominees.

  • Dolores - April 2, 2017 reply

    Bette Midler a shoo-in for Hello Dolly? Why? Because she’s Bette Midler doing Bette Midler as Dolly?

    Have you actually seen Glenn Close in the new Sunset Boulevard production? It’s been a long, long time since I sat in a Broadway musical audience and actually felt the character up there on the stage. She carries it through the entire performance, Norma fully drawn. Truly special. And heartbreaking.

    (And yes, I’m a huge Bette Midler fan, and love that she’s doing this. But she’s just Bette up there–no small thing, but not much serious acting going on.) (With all due respect.)

    Oliver - April 2, 2017 reply

    Hi Dolores,

    Yes, the thought is that Bette Midler is a shoo-in because she is Bette Midler as Dolly and that has a lot of buzz as of right now. We haven’t seen the production yet so that can always change.

    I saw Sunset last week and Glenn Close is absolutely phenomenal. However, as per Tony Awards eligibility rules, she is ineligible for a nomination as she has received a Tony Award for the same role previously in the 1995 production. So, while I agree the performance is one of the best on Broadway this year, we can be sure she will not receive a nomination.

    Michael Riedel wrote a nice article a few weeks ago about Glenn Close and Jake Gyllenhaal, who both would normally be certain to receive Tony nods for their performances, but are ineligible to do so. Here’s the link if you’d like to give it a read: http://nypost.com/2017/02/16/broadways-two-best-performances-cant-win-tonys/

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