Our approach to predicting the Tony Award winners rests partly on statistical analysis, and partly on our own findings. Ahead of making our final predictions later this week, we publish the odds for each category as dictated by the data.
Best Musical
Dear Evan Hansen: 33%Come From Away: 32%
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812: 21%
Groundhog Day: 14%
Best Play
Oslo: 47%A Doll’s House, Part 2: 21%
Sweat: 16%
Indecent: 16%
Best Revival of a Musical
Hello, Dolly!: 65%Miss Saigon: 19%
Falsettos: 16%
Best Revival of a Play
Jitney: 49%The Little Foxes: 25%
Present Laughter: 14%
Six Degrees of Separation: 12%
Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Ben Platt (Dear Evan Hansen): 42%Andy Karl (Groundhog Day): 25%
David Hyde Pierce (Hello, Dolly!): 13%
Josh Groban (Great Comet): 13%
Christian Borle (Falsettos): 7%
Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Bette Midler (Hello, Dolly!): 52%Christine Ebersole (War Paint): 14%
Patti LuPone (War Paint): 13%
Denée Benton (Great Comet): 13%
Eva Noblezada (Miss Saigon): 8%
Best Leading Actor in a Play
Kevin Kline (Present Laughter): 59%Jefferson Mays (Oslo): 14%
Corey Hawkins (Six Degrees of Separation): 13%
Chris Cooper (A Doll’s House, Part 2): 12%
Denis Arndt (Heisenberg): 2%
Best Leading Actress in a Play
Laura Linney (The Little Foxes): 34%Laurie Metcalf (A Doll’s House, Part 2): 30%
Jennifer Ehle (Oslo): 14%
Sally Field (The Glass Menagerie): 13%
Cate Blanchett (The Present): 9%
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Gavin Creel (Hello, Dolly!): 46%Lucas Steel (Great Comet): 30%
Mike Faist (Dear Evan Hansen): 18%
Brandon Uranowitz (Falsettos): 4%
Andrew Rannells (Falsettos): 2%
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Jenn Colella (Come From Away): 38%Rachel Bay Jones (Dear Evan Hansen): 26%
Stephanie J. Block (Falsettos): 14%
Kate Baldwin (Hello, Dolly!): 11%
Mary Beth Peil (Anastasia): 11%
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Danny DeVito (The Price): 29%Michael Aronov (Oslo): 20%
Richard Thomas (The Little Foxes): 20%
Nathan Lane (The Front Page): 19%
John Douglas Thompson (Jitney): 12%
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Cynthia Nixon (The Little Foxes): 27%Jayne Houdyshell (A Doll’s House, Part 2): 19%
Michelle Wilson (Sweat): 19%
Johanna Day (Sweat): 18%
Condola Rashad (A Doll’s House, Part 2):17%
Best Director of a Musical
Rachel Chavkin (Great Comet): 39%Christopher Ashley (Come From Away): 35%
Michael Greif (Dear Evan Hansen): 14%
Jerry Zaks (Hello, Dolly!): 11%
Matthew Warchus (Groundhog Day): 1%
Best Director of a Play
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Jitney): 35%Rebecca Taichman (Indecent): 23%
Daniel Sullivan (The Little Foxes): 20%
Bartlett Sher (Oslo): 11%
Sam Gold (A Doll’s House, Part 2): 11%
Best Book of a Musical
Steven Levenson (Dear Evan Hansen): 45%Irene Sankoff & David Hein (Come From Away): 44%
Dave Malloy (Great Comet): 7%
Danny Rubin (Groundhog Day): 4%
Best Score of a Musical
Dear Evan Hansen (Music & Lyrics by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul): 30%Come From Away (Music & Lyrics by Irene Sankoff & David Hein): 29%
Great Comet (Music & Lyrics by Dave Malloy): 25%
Groundhog Day (Music & Lyrics by Tim Minchin): 16%
Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler (Bandstand): 28%Sam Pinkleton (Great Comet): 27%
Kelly Devine (Come From Away): 22%
Peter Darling & Ellen Kane (Groundhog Day): 16%
Denis Jones (Holiday Inn): 7%
Best Orchestrations
Dave Malloy (Great Comet): 35%Larry Hochman (Hello, Dolly!): 25%
Bill Elliot & Greg Anthony Rassen (Bandstand): 20%
Alex Lacamoire (Dear Evan Hansen): 20%
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Mimi Lien (Great Comet): 81%Santo Loquasto (Hello, Dolly!): 15%
Rob Howell (Groundhog Day): 2%
David Korins (War Paint): 2%
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Nigel Hook (The Play That Goes Wrong): 51%Michael Yeargan (Oslo): 32%
Douglas W. Schmidt (The Front Page): 16%
David Gallo (Jitney): 1%
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Catherine Zuber (War Paint): 38%Santo Loquasto (Hello, Dolly!): 28%
Paloma Young (Great Comet): 27%
Linda Cho (Anastasia): 8%
Best Costume Design of a Play
Jane Greenwood (The Little Foxes): 43%Susan Hilferty (Present Laughter): 39%
Toni-Leslie James (Jitney): 11%
David Zinn (A Doll’s House, Part 2): 7%
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Bradley King (Great Comet): 88%Natasha Katz (Hello, Dolly!): 7%
Japhy Weideman (Dear Evan Hansen): 5%
Howell Binkley (Come From Away): 0%
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Christopher Akerlind (Indecent): 97%Jane Cox (Jitney): 1%
Donald Holder (Oslo): 1%
Jennifer Tipton (A Doll’s House, Part 2): 1%
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