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2025 Tony Awards Predictions

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Who will walk away with the hardware on Sunday night? Here are our predictions in each category. Each category has three selections underneath it. First, my prediction, which is informed by my prediction algorithm, but not determined exclusively by it. Then, we list the Standing Room predictive model’s selection. Finally, this year we are introducing a twist – both myself and the model will be competing against ChatGPT, which I have asked to make its own predictions in each category. Please note: these are predictions and are not indicative of my preferences or of how I voted.

**UPDATED WITH WINNERS**

Here are the results:

Oliver

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Model

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ChatGPT

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Best Musical

**WINNER: Maybe Happy Ending**
Oliver’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending
The Model’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending
ChatGPT’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending

Best Play

**WINNER: Purpose**
Oliver’s Pick: Oh, Mary!
The Model’s Pick: Oh, Mary!
ChatGPT’s Pick: Oh, Mary!

Best Revival of a Musical

**WINNER: Sunset Boulevard**
Oliver’s Pick: Sunset Blvd.
The Model’s Pick: Sunset Blvd.
ChatGPT’s Pick: Sunset Blvd.

Best Revival of a Play

**WINNER: Eureka Day**
Oliver’s Pick: Eureka Day
The Model’s Pick: Eureka Day
ChatGPT’s Pick: Eureka Day

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

**WINNER: Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending)**
Oliver’s Pick: Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending)
The Model’s Pick: Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Tom Francis (Sunset Blvd.)

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

**WINNER: Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Blvd.)**
Oliver’s Pick: Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Blvd.)
The Model’s Pick: Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Audra McDonald (Gypsy)

Best Leading Actor in a Play

**WINNER: Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!)**
Oliver’s Pick: Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!)
The Model’s Pick: Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!)

Best Leading Actress in a Play

**WINNER: Sarah Snook (Dorian Gray)**
Oliver’s Pick: Sarah Snook (Dorian Gray)
The Model’s Pick: Sarah Snook (Dorian Gray)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Laura Donnelly (The Hills of California)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

**WINNER: Jak Malone (Operation Mincemeat)**
Oliver’s Pick: Jak Malone (Operation Mincemeat)
The Model’s Pick: Jak Malone (Operation Mincemeat)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Danny Burstein (Gypsy)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

**WINNER: Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club)**
Oliver’s Pick: Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club)
The Model’s Pick: Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Joy Woods (Gypsy)

Best Featured Actor in a Play

**WINNER: Francis Jue (Yellow Face)**
Oliver’s Pick: Conrad Ricamora (Oh, Mary!)
The Model’s Pick: Conrad Ricamora (Oh, Mary!)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Francis Jue (Yellow Face)

Best Featured Actress in a Play

**WINNER: Kara Young (Purpose)**
Oliver’s Pick: Kara Young (Purpose)
The Model’s Pick: Kara Young (Purpose)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Jessica Hecht (Eureka Day)

Best Director of a Musical

**WINNER: Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending)**
Oliver’s Pick: Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending)
The Model’s Pick: Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending)

Best Director of a Play

**WINNER: Sam Pinkleton (Oh, Mary!)**
Oliver’s Pick: Sam Pinkleton (Oh, Mary!)
The Model’s Pick: Danya Taymor (John Proctor is the Villain)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Sam Pinkleton (Oh, Mary!)

Best Book of a Musical

**WINNER: Maybe Happy Ending**
Oliver’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending
The Model’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending
ChatGPT’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending

Best Score for Theater

**WINNER: Maybe Happy Ending**
Oliver’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending
The Model’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending
ChatGPT’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending

Best Choreography

**WINNER: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck (BVSC)**
Oliver’s Pick: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck (BVSC)
The Model’s Pick: Jerry Mitchell (Boop!)
ChatGPT’s Pick: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck (BVSC)

Best Orchestrations

**WINNER: Buena Vista Social Club**
Oliver’s Pick: Buena Vista Social Club
The Model’s Pick: Buena Vista Social Club
ChatGPT’s Pick: Buena Vista Social Club

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

**WINNER: Maybe Happy Ending**
Oliver’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending
The Model’s Pick: Maybe Happy Ending
ChatGPT’s Pick: Death Becomes Her

Best Scenic Design of a Play

**WINNER: Stranger Things**
Oliver’s Pick: Stranger Things
The Model’s Pick: Stranger Things
ChatGPT’s Pick: Stranger Things

Best Costume Design of a Musical

**WINNER: Death Becomes Her**
Oliver’s Pick: Death Becomes Her
The Model’s Pick: Boop!
ChatGPT’s Pick: Death Becomes Her

Best Costume Design of a Play

**WINNER: Dorian Gray**
Oliver’s Pick: Oh, Mary!
The Model’s Pick: Oh, Mary!
ChatGPT’s Pick: Stranger Things

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

**WINNER: Sunset Blvd.**
Oliver’s Pick: Sunset Blvd.
The Model’s Pick: Sunset Blvd.
ChatGPT’s Pick: Sunset Blvd.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

**WINNER: Stranger Things**
Oliver’s Pick: Stranger Things
The Model’s Pick: Stranger Things
ChatGPT’s Pick: Stranger Things

Best Sound Design of a Musical

**WINNER: Buena Vista Social Club**
Oliver’s Pick: Sunset Blvd.
The Model’s Pick: Just in Time
ChatGPT’s Pick: Buena Vista Social Club

Best Sound Design of a Play

**WINNER: Stranger Things**
Oliver’s Pick: Stranger Things
The Model’s Pick: Stranger Things
ChatGPT’s Pick: Stranger Things

Oliver2025 Tony Awards Predictions
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