2026 Tony Awards Predictions

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Who will walk away with the hardware on Sunday night? Here are our predictions in each category. Each category has four selections underneath it. First, my prediction, which is informed by my prediction algorithm, but not determined exclusively by it. Then, we list the Standing Room predictive model’s selection. Third, ChatGPT, which I have asked to make its own predictions in each category. Finally, the Kalshi favorite as of just before the Tonys Telecast. Please note: these are predictions and are not indicative of my preferences or of how I voted.

**UPDATED POST-BROADCAST**
The results are in. This year, I predicted 22 of the 26 categories correctly. I was bested by ChatGPT, which predicted 23 of the 26 categories correctly. Both the predictive model and Kalshi odds selected 20 of the 26 correctly. See the results below.

Best Musical

**WINNER: Schmigadoon!**Oliver’s Pick: Schmigadoon!
The Model’s Pick: Schmigadoon!ChatGPT’s Pick: Schmigadoon!Kalshi Favorite: Schmigadoon!

Best Play

**WINNER: Liberation**Oliver’s Pick: Liberation
The Model’s Pick: LiberationChatGPT’s Pick: GiantKalshi Favorite: Liberation

Best Revival of a Musical

**WINNER: Ragtime**Oliver’s Pick: Ragtime
The Model’s Pick: RagtimeChatGPT’s Pick: RagtimeKalshi Favorite: Ragtime

Best Revival of a Play

**WINNER: Death of a Salesman**Oliver’s Pick: Death of a SalesmanThe Model’s Pick: Death of a SalesmanChatGPT’s Pick: Death of a SalesmanKalshi Favorite: Death of a Salesman

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

**WINNER: Joshua Henry (Ragtime)**Oliver’s Pick: Joshua Henry (Ragtime)
The Model’s Pick: Joshua Henry (Ragtime)ChatGPT’s Pick: Joshua Henry (Ragtime)Kalshi Favorite: Joshua Henry (Ragtime)

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

**WINNER: Caissie Levy (Ragtime)**Oliver’s Pick: Caissie Levy (Ragtime)
The Model’s Pick: Caissie Levy (Ragtime)ChatGPT’s Pick: Caissie Levy (Ragtime)Kalshi Favorite: Caissie Levy (Ragtime)

Best Leading Actor in a Play

**WINNER: John Lithgow (Giant)**Oliver’s Pick: John Lithgow (Giant)
The Model’s Pick: John Lithgow (Giant)ChatGPT’s Pick: John Lithgow (Giant)Kalshi Favorite: John Lithgow (Giant)

Best Leading Actress in a Play

**WINNER: Lesley Manville (Oedipus)**Oliver’s Pick: Lesley Manville (Oedipus)
The Model’s Pick: Lesley Manville (Oedipus)ChatGPT’s Pick: Lesley Manville (Oedipus)Kalshi Favorite: Lesley Manville (Oedipus)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

**WINNER: Ali Louis Bourzgui (The Lost Boys)**Oliver’s Pick: Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime)
The Model’s Pick: Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime)ChatGPT’s Pick: André De Shields (Cats)Kalshi Favorite: Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

**WINNER: Shoshana Bean (The Lost Boys)**Oliver’s Pick: Shoshana Bean (The Lost Boys)
The Model’s Pick: Shoshana Bean (The Lost Boys)ChatGPT’s Pick: Shoshana Bean (The Lost Boys)Kalshi Favorite: Shoshana Bean (The Lost Boys)

Best Featured Actor in a Play

**WINNER: Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw)**Oliver’s Pick: Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw)
The Model’s Pick: Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw)ChatGPT’s Pick: Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw)Kalshi Favorite: Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw)

Best Featured Actress in a Play

**WINNER: Laurie Metcalf (Death of a Salesman)**Oliver’s Pick: Laurie Metcalf (Death of a Salesman)
The Model’s Pick: Laurie Metcalf (Death of a Salesman)ChatGPT’s Pick: Laurie Metcalf (Death of a Salesman)Kalshi Favorite: Laurie Metcalf (Death of a Salesman)

Best Director of a Musical

**WINNER: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch (Cats)**Oliver’s Pick: Lear deBessonet (Ragtime)
The Model’s Pick: Lear deBessonet (Ragtime)ChatGPT’s Pick: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch (Cats)Kalshi Favorite: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch (Cats)

Best Director of a Play

**WINNER: Joe Mantello (Death of a Salesman)**Oliver’s Pick: Joe Mantello (Death of a Salesman)
The Model’s Pick: Joe Mantello (Death of a Salesman)ChatGPT’s Pick: Joe Mantello (Death of a Salesman)Kalshi Favorite: Joe Mantello (Death of a Salesman)

Best Book of a Musical

**WINNER: Schmigadoon!**Oliver’s Pick: Schmigadoon!
The Model’s Pick: Schmigadoon!ChatGPT’s Pick: Schmigadoon!Kalshi Favorite: Schmigadoon!

Best Score for Theater

**WINNER: Schmigadoon!**Oliver’s Pick: Two Strangers
The Model’s Pick: Two StrangersChatGPT’s Pick: Schmigadoon!Kalshi Favorite: Two Strangers

Best Choreography

**WINNER: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons (Cats)**Oliver’s Pick: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons (Cats)
The Model’s Pick: Christopher Gattelli (Schmigadoon!)ChatGPT’s Pick: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons (Cats)Kalshi Favorite: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons (Cats)

Best Orchestrations

**WINNER: Schmigadoon!**Oliver’s Pick: Schmigadoon!
The Model’s Pick: Schmigadoon!ChatGPT’s Pick: Schmigadoon!Kalshi Favorite: Cats

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

**WINNER: The Lost Boys**Oliver’s Pick: The Lost Boys
The Model’s Pick: The Lost BoysChatGPT’s Pick: The Lost BoysKalshi Favorite: The Lost Boys

Best Scenic Design of a Play

**WINNER: Death of a Salesman**Oliver’s Pick: Death of a Salesman
The Model’s Pick: Death of a SalesmanChatGPT’s Pick: Death of a SalesmanKalshi Favorite: Death of a Salesman

Best Costume Design of a Musical

**WINNER: Cats**Oliver’s Pick: Cats
The Model’s Pick: CatsChatGPT’s Pick: CatsKalshi Favorite: Cats

Best Costume Design of a Play

**WINNER: Fallen Angels**Oliver’s Pick: Fallen Angels
The Model’s Pick: Joe Turner’s Come and GoneChatGPT’s Pick: Fallen AngelsKalshi Favorite: Fallen Angels

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

**WINNER: The Lost Boys**Oliver’s Pick: The Lost Boys
The Model’s Pick: The Lost BoysChatGPT’s Pick: The Lost BoysKalshi Favorite: N/A (Not Taking Bets)

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Best Sound Design of a Musical

**WINNER: Ragtime**Oliver’s Pick: The Lost Boys
The Model’s Pick: The Lost BoysChatGPT’s Pick: The Lost BoysKalshi Favorite: The Lost Boys

Best Sound Design of a Play

**WINNER: Death of a Salesman**Oliver’s Pick: Death of a Salesman
The Model’s Pick: Death of a SalesmanChatGPT’s Pick: Death of a SalesmanKalshi Favorite: Oedipus