AND THEY'RE OFF: Initial Placings & Key Takeaways of the 2017 Tony Award Nominations

The 2017 Tony Award Nominees were announced this morning. If you haven’t read our Tony Awards coverage in previous years, we use a combination of our own analysis of the current campaign and data from the last 25 years to determine the likelihood that any given nominee will win the award. Below, we go through each category, ranking the nominees based on where they stand now, and providing analysis along the way.

Best Musical

1. Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
2. Dear Evan Hansen
3. Come From Away
4. Groundhog Day

We entered this morning expecting the four productions above to be the ones to receive nominations, but wondering if maybe there’d be either a tied vote resulting in a fifth nominee or an upset knocking Olivier winner, Groundhog Day out of the Tony contest. This category wound up exactly as most predicted it would. I think the real shocker is that Great Comet pulled off a major lead with 12 nominations, making it the most nominated production of the year. Don’t expect it to hold that slot though. My guess is that by noon tomorrow it will be back to number three.

Best Play

1. Sweat
2. Oslo
3. A Doll’s House, Part 2
4. Indecent

No real surprises in this category either. Major props go to A Doll’s House, Part 2 for nabbing a nod for each of the four castmembers. Sweat has the big lead as a Pulitzer Prize winner.

Best Revival of a Musical

1. Hello, Doly!
2. Falsettos
3. Miss Saigon

One of the major stories of the day is that the Glenn Close lead revival of Sunset Boulevard was snubbed out of the Tony Nominations all together. Close was ineligible for a nomination as she had recieved a Tony Award back in 1995 for playing the same role, but a lot of us expected it to receive a nomination for Best Revival this year.

Best Revival of a Play

1. The Little Foxes
2. Jitney
3. Present Laughter
4. Six Degrees of Separation

This is a great list of productions. There was a chance The Front Page could have been up there instead of one of the bottom two but I’m not surprised with the results. MTC’s production of Jitney was an early frontrunner in this category but the Spring season has delivered great competition, especially in The Little Foxes, which is also an MTC production. Kudos to them for getting two nods in this category.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

1. Ben Platt (Evan Hansen, Dear Evan Hansen)
2. Andy Karl (Phil Connors, Groundhog Day)
3. Josh Groban (Pierre, The Great Comet)
4. David Hyde Pierce (Horace Vandergelder, Hello, Dolly!)
5. Christian Borle (Marvin, Falsettos)

The most likely nominations prevailed in this loaded category of some of the best performances and biggest names on Broadway. I know there was hope that Jon Jon Briones, who plays The Engineer in Miss Saigon, would make the cut, but given the competition, his absence is unfortunate but not all that surprising.
Ben Platt is off to an early lead, with Andy Karl right on his tails. I expect Platt to run away with it in the coming weeks but I know there is a core group of Karl supporters who want to see him finally take home the hardware.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

1. Bette Midler (Dolly, Hello, Dolly!)
2. Denée Benton (Natasha, Great Comet)
3. Christine Ebersole (Elizabeth Arden, War Paint)
4. Patti LuPone (Helena Rubinstein, War Paint)
5. Eva Noblezada (Kim, Miss Saigon)

Three titans of the theater are up against two rookies. Notable performances left off the nominee list are Laura Osnes (Bandstand), Phillipa Soo (Amélie), and Christy Altomare (Anastasia). I think Bette has this win in the bag. She’s yet to win a performance Tony Award, though she does have a 1974 Special Tony Award.

Best Leading Actor in a Play

1. Kevin Kline (Gary Essendine, Present Laughter)
2. Corey Hawkins (Paul, Six Degrees of Separation)
2. Jefferson Mays (Terje Rød-Larsen, Oslo)
4. Chris Cooper (Torvald, A Doll’s House, Part 2)
5. Denis Arndt (Alex Priest, Heisenberg)

Kevin Kline has the lead here with Hawkins and Mays tied for second behind him. Cooper’s inclusion isn’t shocking, but it did come at the expense of snubbing Significant Other from a Tony Nomination (which, if any, would have been for its lead, Gideon Glick), as well as for Simon McBurney in The Encounter.

Best Leading Actress in a Play

1. Laura Linney (Regina Giddens, The Little Foxes)
1. Laurie Metcalf (Nora, A Doll’s House, Part 2)
3. Sally Field (Amanda Wingfield, The Glass Menagerie)
4. Cate Blanchett (Anna, The Present)
5. Jennifer Ehle (Mona Juul, Oslo)

Laura Linney and Laurie Metcalf are neck-and-neck for this award and they are likely to be in the lead together for a good while on the campaign. Allison Janney (Six Degrees of Separation) could have replaced either of the bottom two actresses in this category without much shock, but the inclusion of two of Janney, Blanchett, and Ehle was expected.

Best Director of a Musical

1. Michael Greif (Dear Evan Hansen)
2. Rachel Chavkin (Great Comet)
3. Christopher Ashley (Come From Away)
3. Jerry Zaks (Hello, Dolly!)
5. Matthew Warchus (Groundhog Day)

I disagree with the numbers on this one. I think that Rachel Chavkin is the favorite to win, though the data gives Greif a slight edge. I have an inkling that this award is going to be used as a counter to the Best Musical award. In other words, voters are likely to award Best Director to one of the musicals they voted against for Best Musical. One of Greif, Chavkin, or Ashley should be hearing their name on Tony Night – I, personally, give Chavkin the edge right now.

Best Director of a Play

1. Daniel Sullivan (The Little Foxes)
2. Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Jitney)
3. Rebecca Taichman (Indecent)
4. Sam Gold (A Doll’s House, Part 2)
5. Bartlett Sher (Oslo)

Nothing too surprising here. We wouldn’t have been surprised if Kate Whoriskey got a nomination for directing Pulitzer Prize winner Sweat, but the category is pretty stacked. It also would have been cool to see Trip Cullman, who made his Broadway directing debut this season, directing both Significant Other, and Six Degrees of Separation, nab a nod, but it’s pretty clear he’ll get a nomination sooner or later with the amount he’s working.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

1. Gavin Creel (Cornelius Hackl, Hello, Dolly!)
1. Lucas Steel (Anatole, Great Comet)
3. Brandon Uranowitz (Mendel, Falsettos)
4. Andrew Rannells (Whizzer, Falsettos)
5. Mike Faist (Connor Murphy, Dear Evan Hansen)

One of the biggest snubs of 2017 was leaving Nick Cordero, who plays Sonny in A Bronx Tale, out of this category. Not only that but A Bronx Tale walked away empty handed, with no nomination, which is a bit surprising considering how popular it has been at the box office since opening in December.
The category also represents this year’s biggest upset, in Mike Faist. Faist slipped in not only over Cordero but also over two of his own castmates, Will Roland and Michael Park.
What is not surprising about this category is there will be a fierce competition between Gavin Creel and Lucas Steel for the hardware.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

1. Jenn Colella (Beverly/Annette & others, Come From Away)
1. Rachel Bay Jones (Heidi Hansen, Dear Evan Hansen)
3. Stephanie J. Block (Trina, Falsettos)
4. Kate Baldwin (Irene Molloy, Hello, Dolly!)
4. Mary Beth Peil (Dowager Empress, Anastasia)

Colella, Jones, and Block were all but guaranteed nominations going into today. Great Comet is notably missing from this category, one of the few categories, and the only performance category, where that is the case. If Falsettos were still running, I’d say that Block had a good shot at the win, but I think this race is really going to come down to Colella v. Jones. I give Colella the slight edge as the breakthrough performance of Come From Away, but it’s either of their ballgame.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

1. Danny DeVito (Gregory Solomon, The Price)
1. Nathan Lane (Walter Burns, The Front Page)
3. John Douglas Thompson (Becker, Jitney)
4. Michael Aronov (Uri Savir, Oslo)
5. Richard Thomas (Horace Giddens, The Little Foxes)

These nominees fell just as we expected. DeVito and Lane are the frontrunners, though Thompson is hot on their heels. The omission of Richard Topol from Indecent is unfortunate because that was the only real chance the production had at a performance nod.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

1. Cynthia Nixon (Birdie Hubbard, The Little Foxes)
2. Jayne Houdyshell (Anne Marie, A Doll’s House, Part 2)
3. Michelle Wilson (Cynthia, Sweat)
4. Johanna Day (Tracey, Sweat)
5. Condola Rashad (Emmy, A Doll’s House, Part 2)

For the second year in a row, the Featured Actress in a Play category contains five nominees from only three productions. The split in votes between Houdyshell/Rashad and Wilson/Day should be enough to give Nixon the boost she needs to pull off a win over Houdyshell, who won the category last year.

Best Book of a Musical

1. Steven Levenson (Dear Evan Hansen)
2. Irene Sankoff & David Hein (Come From Away)
3. Dave Malloy (Great Comet)
4. Danny Rubin (Groundhog Day)

The four nominees for Best Musical all got nods for Best Book. Though Levenson has the lead right now, it will be very interesting to see how this race relates to the Best Musical race. Like is the case for Best Director, the writing categories may be used to award one of these sensational musicals with a consolation prize for losing Best Musical.

Best Score of a Musical

1. Dear Evan Hansen (Music & Lyrics by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
2. Come From Away (Music & Lyrics by Irene Sankoff & David Hein)
3. Great Comet (Music & Lyrics by Dave Malloy)
4. Groundhog Day (Music & Lyrics by Tim Minchin)

Again, these four nominees reflect the four Best Musical nominees. Pasek & Paul, who are hot off their Oscar win for La La Land are expected to recieve the Tony for Dear Evan Hansen.

Best Choreography

1. Andy Blankenbuehler (Bandstand)
2. Sam Pinkleton (Great Comet)
3. Kelly Devine (Come From Away)
4. Denis Jones (Holiday Inn)
5. Peter Darling & Ellen Kane (Groundhog Day)

Nothing at all surprising here. Blankenbuehler, who won this category last year for a little show called Hamilton is the favorite to repeat his victory. He brings a unique flare to the Broadway stage with his swing choreography of Bandstand. This is likely the only category Bandstand has a chance of winning, and voters may want to give it some recognition if it can stay open. Blankenbueler’s biggest competition comes from Sam Pinkleton, who choreographed Great Comet. I wouldn’t be surprised if Comet takes home Choreography and Direction for figuring out how to stage a Broadway show outside of a prescenium.

Best Orchestrations

1. Dave Malloy (Great Comet)
2. Bill Elliot & Greg Anthony Rassen (Bandstand)
3. Alex Lacamoire (Dear Evan Hansen)
4. Larry Hochman (Hello, Dolly!)

Another big snub here – August Eriksmoen who orchestrated Come From Away. Prior to this morning, I would have put Eriksmoen at the top of the pack to win, but apparently the nominating committee disagrees with me. That said, we are, oddly, looking at a similar contest here as we are in choreography – between Great Comet and Bandstand. I would never leave defending champ orchestrator Alex Lacamoire (Hamilton), out of the race either.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

1. Mimi Lien (Great Comet)
2. Santo Loquasto (Hello, Dolly!)
3. Rob Howell (Groundhog Day)
3. David Korins (War Paint)

I have a feeling Great Comet will sweep the design awards – just for making the design work without conforming to the usual precenium setting, but Loquasto’s sets for Hello, Dolly! are pretty extraordinary (someone please tell me where they store that train when it is not on stage).

Best Scenic Design of a Play

1. Nigel Hook (The Play That Goes Wrong)
2. Michael Yeargan (Oslo)
3. Douglas W. Schmidt (The Front Page)
4. David Gallo (Jitney)

I’m sure the people over at The Play That Goes Wrong are bumming that this was their only nod. They are, however, the frontrunner in the category.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

1. Santo Loquasto (Hello, Dolly!)
1. Paloma Young (Great Comet)
3. Linda Cho (Anastasia)
4. Catherine Zuber (War Paint)

The distance between each of the nominees in this category is so small, we can’t say yet how things will land. I suspect the trophy will go to Loquasto or Young.

Best Costume Design of a Play

1. Susan Hilferty (Present Laughter)
2. Jane Greenwood (The Little Foxes)
3. Toni-Leslie James (Jitney)
4. David Zinn (A Doll’s House, Part 2)

Hilferty has a solid lead in this category for designing the costumes for Present Laughter.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

1. Bradley King (Great Comet)
2. Natasha Katz (Hello, Dolly!)
3. Japhy Weideman (Dear Evan Hansen)
4. Howell Binkley (Come From Away)

Sense a pattern? Hello, Dolly! and Great Comet are going to be at each other’s throats in the design categories, though this one is leaning in Comet’s favor. I would have liked to have seen Jeff Croiter nominated for his work on Bandstand, but otherwise this is a solid group.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

1. Christopher Akerlind (Indecent)
2. Jane Cox (Jitney)
2. Donald Holder (Oslo)
4. Jennifer Tipton (A Doll’s House, Part 2)

I am pretty shocked that Jennifer Tipton snuck in here. Christopher Akerlind should run away with this for his design of Indecent

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