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AND THEY’RE OFF: Initial Placings & Key Takeaways of the 2018 Tony Award Nominations

The 2018 Tony Award Nominees were announced this morning. If you haven’t read our Tony Awards coverage in previous years, we use a combination of our own analysis of the current campaign and data from the last 25 years to determine the likelihood that any given nominee will win the award. Below, we go through each category, ranking the nominees based on where they stand now, and providing analysis along the way.

Best Musical

1. The Band’s Visit
2. Mean Girls
2. SpongeBob SquarePants
4. Frozen

No surprises here. The only thing to note is that Mean Girls and SpongeBob SquarePants racked up 12 nominations each. This year is going to boil down to The Band’s Visit v. something else. If one of those two other shows far outperformed the other in nominations, that would have set up a nice head-to-head. The fact that both shows were so well nominated could be good news for The Band’s Visit.
Today was clearly not good news for Frozen, which walked away with only 3 nominations.

Best Play

1. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
2. Farinelli and the King
3. The Children
3. Junk
5. Latin History for Morons

Congrats to Latin History for Morons for squeesing in there. That slot could have easily been Meteor Shower. But, honestly, now that the nominations are over, this category doesn’t really matter…you may as well give the Tony to Harry Potter right now.

Best Revival of a Musical

1. Carousel
2. My Fair Lady
3. Once on This Island

This is going to be the race of the year. All three productions have a great path towards the win. I would have guessed Carousel would have been in the 3 position after today but the fact that it got 11 total nominations (5 of which are in performance categories), gave it the slight edge. At the end of the day, the distance between these three is so minimal and it’s anybody’s ballgame (is that the saying? I know theater, not baseball).

Best Revival of a Play

1. Angels in America
2. Three Tall Women
3. Travesties
4. The Iceman Cometh
5. Lobby Hero

Here’s the thing about this race: Angels has a solid lead and is the clear favorite, but that lead is not insurmountable by either Three Tall Women or Travesties. The former probably has a better shot, being an American production and a Scott Rudin production – which means it will likely get one hell of a campaign budget.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

1. Joshua Henry (Billy Bigelow, Carousel)
1. Harry Hadden-Patten (Henry Higgins, My Fair Lady)
3. Ethan Slater (SpongeBob SquarePants, SpongeBob SquarePants)
4. Tony Schalub (Tewfiq, The Band’s Visit)

5 elligible candidates, we wish we could nominate them all, but these were the 4 we were expecting. Joshua Henry and Harry Hadden-Patten are off to a strong start, but keep your eyes on that #3 slot, Ethan Slater, who could easily pop up to the top with some good campaigning.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

1. Katrina Lenk (Dina, The Band’s Visit)
2. Lauren Ambrose (Eliza Doolittle, My Fair Lady)
3. Taylor Lauderman (Regina George, Mean Girls)
3. LaChanze LaChanze (Diva Donna, Summer)
3. Hailey Kilgore (Ti Moune, Once on This Island)
6. Jessie Mueller (Julie Jordan, Carousel)

6 nominees means that there were fewer than 3 votes separating the 5th and 6th nominees. We don’t know which those are but that is a testament to the female talent on Broadway this season. Notably left off this list are the Frozen girls. I would have loved to have seen Patti Murin get a nod, but given the level of talent in this category, someone had to be cut out who didn’t deserve it. This category is going to be very competitive.
I think we’ll find our winner in Katrina Lenk or Lauren Ambrose, but one of those 3rd ranked actresses could make a move for 1st.

Best Leading Actor in a Play

1. Andrew Garfield (Prior Walter, Angels in America)
1. Tom Hollander (Henry Carr, Travesties)
2. Denzel Washington (Theodore Hickman, The Iceman Cometh)
4. Jamie Parker (Harry Potter, Harry Potter)
5. Mark Rylance (King Phillipe V of Spain, Farinelli and the King)

Garfield and Hollander are in a cage match here. Garfield probably will sneak ahead for being part of the more renound production but I hear Hollander’s performance is superb. Jamie Parker, who won the Olivier last year for his performance in the same role, should not be discounted – he could pull an upset.

Best Leading Actress in a Play

1. Glenda Jackson (A, Three Tall Women)
2. Lauren Ridloff (Sarah Norman, Children of a Lesser God)
3. Condola Rashad (Joan, Saint Joan)
4. Amy Schumer (Corky, Meteor Shower)

This is probably Glenda Jackson’s for the taking, but Lauren Ridloff could give her a run for her money – both of these women give excellent performances.

Best Director of a Musical

1. David Cromer (The Band’s Visit)
2. Bartlett Sher (My Fair Lady)
2. Tina Landau (SpongeBob SquarePants)
4. Casey Nicholaw (Mean Girls)
4. Michael Arden (Once on This Island)

These nominations were exactly as expected. This is a tight race but Cromer is definitely in the lead. I do think it’s more likely that The Band’s Visit loses Best Musical than Best Director, and that if voters are voting against for Best Musical, they will want to reward the production here. That said, I disagree with the numbers on this one in that I think that if anyone is going to upset Cromer, it would be Michael Arden. Bartlett Sher could also win but Arden is a young talent who has now gone 2 for 2 in nominations for his Broadway directing credits.

Best Director of a Play

1. John Tiffany (Harry Potter)
2. Marianne Elliot (Angels in America)
2. Joe Mantello (Three Tall Women)
4. Patrick Marber (Travesties)
5. George C. Wolfe (The Iceman Cometh)

Nothing too surprising here. It would have been great to see Tripp Cullman get a nomination for directing Lobby Hero, especially after not recieving a nomination last year with his two Broadway directing debuts, but the category is pretty stacked. I don’t expect the story of this category changing much: John Tiffany is in the lead, and Marianne Elliot and Joe Montello are both on his tail trying to upset.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

1. Norbert Leo Butz (Alfred P. Doolittle, My Fair Lady)
2. Gavin Lee (Squidward, SpongeBob SquarePants)
2. Ari’el Stachel (Haled, The Band’s Visit)
4. Alexander Gemignani (Enoch Snow, Carousel)
5. Grey Henson (Damian Hubbard, Mean Girls)

I know a lot of people were hoping to see Alex Newell’s name here. That didn’t happen but what we do have is Broadway favorite and Tony-winning-machine Norbert Leo Butz with a slight lead over two newer faces, Gavin Lee and Ari’el Stachel.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

1. Ashley Park (Gretchen Wieners, Mean Girls)
2. Lindsay Mendez (Carrie Pipperidge, Carousel)
3. Ariana DeBose (Disco Donna, Summer)
4. Diana Rigg (Mrs. Higgins, My Fair Lady)
5. Renée Flemming (Nettie Fowler, Carousel)

I love Ariana DeBose, Diana Rigg, and Renée Flemming, but this is a race between Ashley Park and Lindsay Mendez. Mendez took a hit today because she shares her nomination with her co-star, Flemming, but I expect the two of them to go back and forth with the lead for the next 6 weeks.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

1. Nathan Lane (Roy Cohn, Angels in America)
1. Anthony Boyle (Scorpius Malfoy, Harry Potter)
3. David Morse (Larry Slade, The Iceman Cometh)
4. Brian Tyree Henry (William, Lobby Hero)
5. Michael Cera (Jeff, Lobby Hero)

I was a bit shocked to hear Michael Cera’s name, especially over his co-star, Chris Evans, who I’ve heard is giving a stronger performance and who is, arguably, a bigger star making his Broadway debut. The big snub in this category is James McArdle (Angels in America), who gives one hell of a performance if you ask me. That said, we’ve got a fun race shaping up here. Theater great Nathan Lane giving what is, even for someone like him, the performance of a lifetime, vs. Broadway newcomer Anthony Boyle who is the heart of a show that is likley to become the biggest, most successful play in Broadway history.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

1. Noma Dumezweni (Hermione Granger, Harry Potter)
2. Denise Gough (Harper Pitt, Angels in America)
3. Laurie Metcalf (B, Three Tall Women)
4. Deborah Findlay (Hazel, The Children)
5. Susan Brown (Hannah Pitt, Angels in America)

Both Featured Performance in a Play categories are going to be Harry Potter v. Angels in America. While Nathan Lane (Angels in America) Has a slight lead in the Actor Category, I think Dumezweni (Harry Potter) has the edge in this category over Deise Gough. It’ll be very close though and both of these women are making their Broadway debuts with breathtaking performances in British import productions.

Best Book of a Musical

1. Itamar Moses (The Band’s Visit)
2. Tina Fey (Mean Girls)
3. Kyle Jarrow (SpongeBobSquarePants)
4. Jennifer Lee (Frozen)

The four nominees for Best Musical all got nods for Best Book. I have a feeling Tina Fey may take the lead in this category very shortly – I’m expecting her to be front and center during the campaign.

Best Score

1. The Band’s Visit (Music & Lyrics by David Yazbek)
2. Frozen (Music & Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez)
3. SpongeBob SquarePants (The SpongeBob Music Team)
4. Mean Girls (Music by Jeff Richmond, Lyrics by Nell Benjamin)
4. Angels in America (Music by Adrian Sutton)

I’m pretty shocked Angels in America was nominated over Harry Potter here. Other than that, nothing shocking. Some interesting things about this category: (a) this is probably Frozen’s only chance at winning an award, and I just don’t see them pulling that off. (b) Mean Girls, which is right up on The Band’s Visit’s tail when it comes to Best Book, is way behind in this category. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Book go to Tina Fey and Music go to David Yazbek for The Band’s Visit.

Best Choreography

1. Justin Peck (Carousel)
1. Christopher Gatelli (SpongeBob SquarePants)
3. Casey Nicholaw (Mean Girls)
4. Christopher Gatelli (My Fair Lady)
4. Steven Hoggett (Harry Potter)

Nothing at all surprising here. Camille A. Brown (Once on This Island) was the only real snub who we could have seen on this list. Steve Hoggett recieves his second nomination in the category for his work on a non-musical play (his first was for Curious Incident) with Harry Potter.

Best Orchestrations

1. Jamshied Sharifi (The Band’s Visit)
2. Tom Kitt (SpongeBob SquarePants)
3. John Clancy (Mean Girls)
4. Annmarie Milazzo & Michael Starobin (Once on This Island)
4. Jonathan Tunick (Carousel)

Jason Robert Brown was The Prince of Broadway‘s best chance at a nomination and with his exclusion, that production walked away empty handed today. This category is interesting this year, because of a new rule which specifies that only a subset of Tony voters with expertise in orchestrations will be able to place a vote.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

1. David Zinn (SpongeBob SquarePants)
2. Dane Laffrey (Once on This Island)
3. Michael Yeargan (My Fair Lady)
3. Scott Pask, Finn Ross & Adam Young (Mean Girls)
5. Scott Pask (The Band’s Visit)

Best Scenic Design of a Play

1. Christine Jones (Harry Potter)
2. Miriam Buether (Three Tall Women)
3. Jonathan Fensom (Farinelli and the King)
4. Ian MacNeil & Edward Pierce (Angels in America)
4. Santo Loquasto (The Iceman Cometh)

Best Costume Design of a Musical

1. David Zinn (SpongeBob SquarePants)
1. Catherine Zuber (My Fair Lady)
1. Clint Ramos (Once on This Island)
4. Gregg Barnes (Mean Girls)
5. Ann Roth (Carousel)

Best Costume Design of a Play

1. Katrina Lindsay (Harry Potter)
2. Ann Roth (Three Tall Women)
3. Lorraine Ebdon Price (Farinelli and the King)
3. Nicky Gillibrand (Angels in America)
5. Ann Roth (The Iceman Cometh)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

1. Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhaur (Once on This Island)
1. Brian MacDevitt (Carousel)
3. Tyler Micoleaun (The Band’s Visit)
4. Kevin Adams (SpongeBob SquarePants)
5. Donald Holder (My Fair Lady)

Best Lighting Design of a Play

1. Neil Austin (Harry Potter)
2. Paul Russell (Farinelli and the King)
2. Paule Constable (Angels in America)
4. Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer (The Iceman Cometh)
4. Ben Stanton (Junk)

Best Sound Design of a Musical

1. Walter Trarbach & Mike Dobson (SpongeBob SquarePants)
2. Kai Harada (The Band’s Visit)
3. Peter Hylenski (Once on This Island)
4. Scott Lehrer (Carousel)
5. Brian Ronanr (Mean Girls)

Best Sound Design of a Play

1. Gareth Fry (Harry Potter)
2. Ian Dickinson for Autograph (Angels in America)
2. Tom Gibbons (1984)
4. Adam Cork (Travesties)
4. Dan Moses Schreir (The Iceman Cometh)

These categories are tough because there is so little data available, and the data that is available is based on a different set of rules than will be used to determine this year’s winners – in previous years, all voters were able to cast a vote in these categories, but this year only those who have specific qualification in sound design will be able to cast votes. That said, on the Musical side, expect to see the race boil down to Walter Trarbach & Mike Dobson’s (SpongeBob SquarePants) work bringing the kooky sounds of a Saturday morning cartoon to the stage, and Kai Harada’s (The Band’s Visit) job in molding the sounds of an on-stage klesmer band. On the play side, we’re expecting a competition between Wizards and Angels (Harry Potter v Angels in America).

Click here for all of our 2018 Tony Awards Coverage

OliverAND THEY’RE OFF: Initial Placings & Key Takeaways of the 2018 Tony Award Nominations
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