Last week, we assessed the starting positions of the nominees in each of the Tony Award categories.  It has only been a week, but we’ve already seen movement among nominees.  If you are wondering where all of this movement is coming from, NorthJersey.com writer and Tony Voter, Robert Feldberg, wrote a great piece on the ways nominees woo Tony Voters last year.

With that said, here is an analysis of some of the biggest shifts in favor that we have seen in the last week.

Where We Are

Currently: 1 Week after Tony Nominees Announcement, 5 Weeks to Tony Night
Last Assessment: 5/3/15 – Analysis of the Nominees – Initial Standings

Best Musical

[su_column]With a win from the Outer Critics Circle, and recent press surrounding producer Joey Parns’ decision to take out a priority loan in order to keep Bright Star afloat until Tony night, the show has picked up some steam in the last week.[/su_column]Hamilton is winning this category, so it doesn’t really matter.

Current Best Musical Tony Award Prediction:
Hamilton

Best Play

[su_column]The Humans is very close to a lock for Best Play.  After winning the New York Drama Critics Circle Award, and the Outer Critics Circle Award, it’s hard to imagine any of the other nominees beating it for the Tony.[/su_column]Eclipsed, the Lupita Nyong’o lead play, has unfortunately grew further from The Humans in the race, as its box office continues to lull even after the nominations.

Current Best Play Tony Award Prediction:
The Humans

Best Revival of a Musical

[su_column]She Loves Me, the most nominated musical revival of the season, is now also the most award winning revival this season, having taken four Outer Critics Circle Awards home earlier this week, including best revival[/su_column]The Color Purple is, at the same time, doing a great job generating buzz for itself, keeping the gap between it and She Loves Me pretty small, even though She Loves Me has managed to take a sizable, early lead.

Current Best Revival of a Musical Tony Award Prediction:
She Loves Me

Best Revival of a Play

[su_column]Long Day’s Journey Into Night has had an amazing awards season so far, and had a very strong showing at the Outer Critics Circle Awards, winning three awards in five nominations.  [/su_column]The Crucible walked away empty handed, having lost two of its three contests to Long Day’s Journey Into Night.

Current Best Revival of a Play Tony Award Prediction:
Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Lead Actor in a Musical

The big Lead Actor question is if one of these two can garner enough support from non-Hamilton contingency voters to take hardware.  This week we saw Danny Burstein take the OCC award for Outstanding Actor in a musical, which gives him an edge over Alex Brightman to be the nominee that might be able to squeeze a win out of a Lin-Manuel Miranda/Leslie Odom, Jr. Hamilton vote split

Current Lead Actor in a Musical Tony Award Prediction:
Leslie Odom, Jr. (Hamilton)

Lead Actress in a Musical

[su_column]Nailing a performance on the Today Show moments after finding out you are nominated for a Tony Award for Leading Actress in a Musical is a good way to reinforce your lead in the Tony race[/su_column] Conversely, as an underdog in this race from the  Hamilton juggernaut, Phillipa Soo needs to be making an appearance like Cynthia did if she is going to be able to compete with the other actresses in this category.

Current Lead Actress in a Musical Tony Award Prediction:
Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple)

Lead Actor in a Play

[su_column]Frank Langella’s performance in The Father is gaining a lot of buzz since his Tony Nomination.  He also won the Outer Critics Circle award for this performance. .[/su_column]Mark Strong, who delivered one of the finest performances of the season by far, is having trouble getting press attention over nominees in currently running shows.

Current Lead Actor in a Play Tony Award Prediction:
Frank Langella (The Father)

Lead Actress in a Play

[su_column]Lange’s depiction of Mary Cavan Tyrone is absolutely stunning, and I challenge you to walk through Times Square without hearing something about her performance.  The troops are already rallying behind her. .[/su_column]Nyong’o is runner up to Lange in this category, but the gap has widened between her and Lange because there isn’t much new talk about her performance.  Eclipsed has been having a problem since day one converting their press coverage into something that pushes the needle at the box office, or gets word-of-mouth going.

Current Lead Actress in a Play Tony Award Prediction:
Jessica Lange (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)

Who will seal the deal in the next few weeks, and who will be fighting for the hardware until Tony Night?  Stay tuned for more coverage.