Over the last two weeks, we have assessed the starting positions of the nominees in each of Tony Award categories.  We are now three weeks into the race, and we’ve seen a lot of movement.  If you don’t know where all of this movement is coming from, NorthJersey.com writer and Tony Voter, Robert Feldberg, wrote a great piece on ways nominees woo Tony Voters.

With that said, here is an analysis of some of the biggest shifts in favor that we have seen in the last two weeks.

Where We Are

Currently: 3 Weeks after Tony Nominees Announcement, 3 Weeks to Tony Night
Last Assessment: 4/27/15 – Analysis of the Nominees

Best Musical

The two horses who were first out the gate have now extended their lead.  The winner will almost certainly be either An American in Paris or Fun Home.  It is really a neck-and-neck race between a small, dramatic musical, and a big, foot-tapping musical.

Current Places:

1. An American in Paris & Fun Home
3. Something Rotten
4. The Visit

Best Play

Curious Incident is very close to a lock for Best Play.  We have it favored with 1 to 1 odds.Hand to God has closed the gap between it and Wolf Hall, but neither is anywhere near taking down Curious Incident.

Current Places:

1. The Curious Incident of the  Dog in the Night-Time
2. Wolf Hall
3. Hand to God
4. Disgraced

Best Revival of a Musical

The King and I took a very large lead and has only widened the gap in the past few weeks.  It won the OCC & Drama League Awards, and announced that it is now open ended with a national tour on the way.

Current Places:

1. The King and I
2. On the Twentieth Century
3. On the Town

Best Revival of a Play

The revival of Skylight which is now playing at the John Golden Theatre is still in the lead for Best Revival of a Play.  However, in the past few weeks we’ve seen You Can’t Take It with You come within arms reach of Skylight, and The Elephant Man fall by the wayside.

Current Places:

1. Skylight
2. You Can’t Take It with You
3. The Elephant Man
4. This is Our Youth

Lead Actor in a Musical

	Robert Fairchild	Brian d’Arcy James

Current Places:

1. Michael Cerveris
2. Robert Fairchild
3. Brian d’Arcy James
4. Tony Yazbeck
5. Ken Watanabe

Lead Actress in a Musical

	Kristen Chenoweth	Kelli O’Hara

Current Places:

1. Kristen Chenoweth
2. Chita Rivera
3. Leanne Cope
4. Kelli O’Hara
5. Beth Malone

Lead Actor in a Play

	Alex Sharp	Bradley Cooper
This year’s frontrunner for best actor is Broadway Newbie Alex Sharp.  Want to get to know him better?  Check out this interview from Broadway.com

Current Places:

1. Alex Sharp
2. Ben Miles
3. Steven Boyer
4. Bill Nighy
5. Bradley Cooper

Lead Actress in a Play

	Helen Mirren	Ruth Wilson

Current Places:

1. Helen Mirren
2. Elisabeth Moss & Carey Mulligan
4. Ruth Wilson
5. Geneva Carr

Who will seal the deal in the next few weeks, and who will be fighting for the hardware until Tony Night?  Stay tuned for more coverage.