**Updated with Nominees**

Nominees Indicated in BLUE

How’d we do? Pretty well!
44 out of 51 Shoe-Ins Nominated.
Only 7 Nominees left off of 109 total

It’s Tony-Time! Nikki M. James and Andrew Rannells will announce the Nominees of the 70th annual Tony Awards on Tuesday, May 3rd at 8:30am. Some productions and performances already feel like absolute locks, while others are holding their breath until Tuesday morning to learn their fate.  Who has the nod in their pocket, which are on the bubble, and what dark horses may hear their name read Tuesday morning?  We take a look at how the contenders stand right now, taking into account reviews, box-office performance, previous nods (Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk), and Broadway buzz.  

For the four “Best Production” awards and four “Leading Actor/Actress” awards, we’ve provided a detailed analysis of the candidates’ standing.  For the other categories, which have much larger pools of eligible candidates, we skipped the details and cut straight to our predictions. 

Best Musical

Shoe-Ins
Hamilton – Duh.  

Waitress – With nominations from the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk, the Waitress team is pretty sure to nab a nod on Tuesday.  Plus, the production is history-making as the first musical to land on the Great White Way with an all-female creative team.

On the Bubble
American Psycho – American Psycho lead the pack in number of Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nominations for new musicals.  It wasn’t competing against Hamilton for either of those awards, which is ineligible due to its consideration last year when it played off-Broadway, so we don’t expect it to lead in Tony Noms, but it could easily get nominated.

School of Rock – School of Rock is one of only two new fall musicals to have remained open through Tony time (the other being On Your Feet!) and I’d bet one of the two ends up hearing their name called, the question is: which one? The composer, Andrew Lloyd Webber (Phantom of the Opera, Jesus Christ Superstar, Cats), is one one of the most prolific composers of our era, which doesn’t hurt. 

Shuffle Along – Shuffle Along was the big wild-card in the Tony race until last week, because the producers were lobbying for it to be eligible as a revival rather than a new musical.  That effort was unsuccessful, so now this production will face the Goliath that is Hamilton – if the voters feel it deserves a nod, especially after their hard push to qualify in a category it was never really qualified to be in. 

Dark-Horses
Tuck Everlasting– Tuck Everlasting got a good New York Times review, and an Outer Critics Circle nomination, but the competition is fierce, and Tuck could easily not make the cut. 

Bright Star –  Bright Star was a New York Times critics’ pick and picked up a few Outer Critics and Drama Desk awards but this Steve Martin and Edie Brickell musical doesn’t have the mass appeal to really ensure it hears its name called Tuesday.  It is probably the most well received show by critics to be failing at the box office, which might make it worthy of the Tony-bump in some voters’ eyes. 

On Your Feet! – The Estefan musical has been doing well at the box office, but lacks the type of art and sophistication Tony voters usually look for, so it probably won’t nab a nomination over the heavy hitters in this category. 

What’s Left
Allegiance, Amazing Grace, Disaster!

Best Play

Shoe-Ins
The Humans – The Humans was critically acclaimed at Roundabout before being swooped up by Scott Rudin to put at the Hellen Hayes.  It has been nominated for all three other awards this year, and was a Pulitzer finalist. 

King Charles III – This fall production won the Olivier award last year for best new play in the West End, and it will pick up a nod for the Tony this year as well.  

Eclipsed – Eclipsed picked up a Lucille Lortel nom for its run off Broadway at the Public.  The play which features an all woman cast and Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o is sure to pick up a nod.

On the Bubble
The Father – The Father was nominated for an Olivier this year, which is a pretty good indication that the nominating committee will spend time talking about it. 

An Act of God – None of the previously mentioned plays are comedies.  An Act of God recently announced it is re-opening this summer, which may just give Tony voters enough of a reason to consider it for the nomination.

Dark Horses
Misery – This wasn’t very well reviewed, but it was a decent adaptation of a well known movie and book, so it could hypothetically upset one of the above titles for a nomination.  

Therese Raquin – We’re expecting Roundabout’s production of Therese Raquin to do very well in the design categories, but probably not so well elsewhere.  It’s not Impossible for it to squeeze onto the Best Play list, but it is highly improbable. 

What’s Left
China Doll, Our Mother’s Brief Affair

Best Revival of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
The Color Purple – John Doyle’s minimalist production of this 2005 Tony Award for Best Musical nominee is sure to make the cut.  

She Loves Me – She Loves Me lead in nominations from the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk, including being considered in the Best Revival of a Musical Category in each.

Fiddler on the Roof – Fiddler + Danny Burstein + Bartlett Sher = Tony Nom.  Mostly because it’s stayed open since winter and Bartlett Sher has become the king of revivals recently.

On the Bubble
Spring Awakening – The production received praise from the theater community, but unfortunately didn’t have the box-office appeal to stay open for long.  It is going on tour though, which means it can use the Tony bump, and won’t be ignored completely by the committee. 

Dark Horse
Dames at Sea – There are so many great productions in the Best Revival category this year.  Dames at Sea, which had a really short run this fall, is not going to make it into the ring over Spring Awakening.

Best Revival of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Long Day’s Journey Into Night– It got nods from the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk, and it’ll get a nod from the Tonys on Tuesday.

A View from the Bridge – This magnificent revival got nominated for Outer Critics Circle, Drama Desk, and Drama League awards.  It also won the Olivier Award last year for best Revival.  It was a bare-boned production that stripped the play down to the core. 

On the Bubble
Noises Off – A laugh-out-loud revival of a laugh-out-loud comedy. 

Blackbird – It got the nod from the Drama League and Outer Critics Circle, and is highly likely to get the Tony Nod as well.

Dark Horses

The Crucible – Critically acclaimed but  the word-of-mouth is that it’s so-so.  It may  pull off a nomination if there is room. 

Fool for Love – Sam Rockwell and Tony winner Nina Arianda starred in this critically acclaimed revival of a show which actually has never played Broadway before, but has had an off-Broadway run.

Old Times – Of all the Fall shows, this star-studded revival is the one of the more likely to creep its way into the list of nominees. 

What’s Left
The Gin Game, Hughie, Sylvia

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton) – There is little chance this writer, composer, MacArthur genius, actor wont add 2016 Best Actor Tony Nominee to his list of honors this year.  

Leslie Odom, Jr. (Hamilton) – Leslie’s Burr is a highlight of Hamilton, with some of the shows most rousing numbers and pinnacle performances.

Alex Brightman (School of Rock) – This performance is outstanding, and is the most likely to pull off a Hamilton upset come June. 

On the Bubble
Benjamin Walker (American Psycho) – Walker is a staple in the theater community and plays a singing psych-killer, which can’t be easy.

Danny Burstein (Fiddler on the Roof) – He’s a well-liked broadway vet who has his first shot at a nomination for a LEAD in a musical this year.

Dark Horses
Josh Segarra (On Your Feet!) – He really, really sounds like Emilio in On Your Feet!

Zachary Levi (Honeymoon in Vegas) – Levi is a TV star with Broadway chops.  He’s staring in this well liked revival, but up against some tough competition.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple) – Go see the show.  Then You will know why it’s on this list.  She was a semi-known talent in the UK turned Broadway Superstar. 

Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along) – Audra would get a nomination for sneezing in the theater.  Out of her 12 Broadway credits, she has been nominated 8 times, and won 6 of those. 

Jessie Mueller (Waitress) – Sugar, flower, butter, tony nod

On the Bubble
Carmen Cusack (Bright Star) – In her Broadway debut, Carmen Cusack picked up an Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk Award Nomination.

Philipa Soo (Hamilton) – This is the acting category that Hamilton has the highest chance of not getting nominated for, but given Philipa’s performance, they’re probably fine.

Laura Benanti (She Loves Me) – A Broadway vet in a well-liked revival is always someone the nominating committee will consider.

Dark Horses
Ana Villafañe (On Your Feet!) – Ana’s performance as Gloria Estefan is phenomenal, but she’s going to have a hard time breaking into the category full of Broadway vets

Best Leading Actor in a Play

Shoe-Ins
Frank Langella (The Father)
Mark Strong (A View From the Bridge) 

On the Bubble
Gabriel Byrne (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III)
Ben Whishaw (The Crucible)

Dark Horses
Jeff Daniels (Blackbird)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Fully Committed)

Best Leading Actress in a Play

Shoe-Ins
Jessica Lange (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
Nicola Walker (A View From the Bridge)

On the Bubble
Lupita Nyong’o (Eclipsed)
Michelle Williams (Blackbird)
Laurie Metcalf (Misery)

Dark Horse
Linda Lavin (Our Mother’s Brief Affair)
Cicely Tyson (The Gin Game)
Nina Arianda (Fool for Love)

What We Missed
Sophie Okenedo (The Crucible)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Daveed Diggs (Hamilton)
Christopher Jackson (Hamilton)

On the Bubble
Nicholas Barasch (She Loves Me)
Christopher Fitzgerald (Waitress)
Anthony Ramos (Hamilton)
Okieriete Onaodowan (Hamilton)

Dark Horses
Roger Bart (Disaster!)
Paul Alexander Nolan (Bright Star)
AJ Shively (Bright Star)
Jonathan Groff (Hamilton)

What We Missed
Brandon Victor Dixon (Shuffle Along)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Renée Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton)

On the Bubble
Jane Krakowski (She Loves Me)
Alice Ripley (American Psycho)
Helene Yorke (American Psycho)
Jasmine Cephas Jones (Hamilton)
Jessica Hecht (Fiddler on the Roof)

Dark Horses
Andrea Burns (On Your Feet!)
Jennifer Simard (Disaster!)
Lea Solonga (Allegiance)

Dark Horses
Adrienne Warren (Shuffle Along)

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Shoe-Ins
Reed Birney (The Humans)
Michael Shannon (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)

On the Bubble
Robert Sella (Sylvia)
Bill Camp (The Crucible)
Jim Norton (The Crucible)
Jeremy Shamos (Noises Off)
Russell Tovey (A View From the Bridge)

Dark Horses
Rob McClure (Noises Off)

What We Missed
David Furr (Noises Off)
Richard Goulding (King Charles III)

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Shoe-Ins
Pascale Armand (Eclipsed)
Judith Light (Thérèse Raquin)

On the Bubble
Zainab Jah (Eclipsed)
Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans)
Saycon Sengbloh (Eclipsed)
Megan Hilty (Noises Off)
Phoebe Fox (A View From the Bridge)
Laura Klein (The Humans)

Dark Horses
Andrea Martin (Noises Off)
Julie White (Sylvia)

Best Direction of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Thomas Kail (Hamilton)
Rupert Goold (American Psycho)

On the Bubble
Michael Arden (Spring Awakening)
Scott Ellis (She Loves Me)
Bartlett Sher (Fiddler on the Roof)
John Doyle (The Color Purple)

Dark Horses
Laurence Connor (School of Rock)
George C. Woolfe (Shuffle Along)
Diane Paulus (Waitress)
Walter Bobbie (Bright Star)

Best Direction of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Ivo van Hove (A View From the Bridge)
Joe Mantello (The Humans)

On the Bubble
Rupert Goold (King Charles III)
Joe Mantello (Blackbird)
Liesl Tommy (Eclipsed)

Dark Horse
Jeremy Herrin (Noises Off)
Jason Moore (Fully Committed)

What We Missed
Jonathan Kent (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)

Best Choreography

Shoe-Ins
Andy Blankenbuehler (Hamilton)
Savion Glover (Shuffle Along)

On the Bubble
Spencer Liff (Spring Awakening)
Hofesh Shecter (Fiddler on the Roof)
Josh Rhodes (Bright Star)
Sergio Trujillo (On Your Feet!)
Randy Skinner (Dames at Sea)

Dark Horses
Lynn Page (American Psycho)

Best Book of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton)
Jessie Nelson (Waitress)

On the Bubble
Alexander Dinelaris (On Your Feet!)
Roberto Aguirre-Sacasa (American Psycho)
Julian Fellowes (School of Rock)

Dark Horses
Steve Martin (Bright Star)
George C. Wolfe (Shuffle Along)
Claudia Shear & Tim Federle (Tuck Everlasting)

Best Original Score

Shoe-Ins
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton)
Andrew Lloyd Webber & Glenn Slater (School of Rock)

On the Bubble
Sara Bareilles (Waitress)
Duncan Sheik (American Psycho)

Dark Horses
Steve Martin & Edie Brickell (Bright Star)

Best Orchestrations

Shoe-Ins
Alex Lacamoire (Hamilton)

On the Bubble
Duncan Sheik (American Psycho)
August Eriksmoen (Bright Star)
Andrew Lloyd Webber (School of Rock)
Larry Hochman (She Loves Me)

Dark Horse
Jorge Casas (On Your Feet!)
Sarah Bareilles (Waitress)
Joseph Joubert & Catherine Jayes (The Color Purple)

What We Missed
Daryl Waters (Shuffle Along)

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
David Rockwell (She Loves Me)
Es Devlin & Finn Ross (American Psycho)

On the Bubble
David Korins (Hamilton)
Walt Spangler (Tuck Everlasting)
Anna Louizos (School of Rock)
Santo Loquasto (Shuffle Along)

Dark Horses
David Rockwell (On Your Feet!)
Scott Pask (Waitress)
John Doyle (The Color Purple)

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Beowulf Boritt (Thérèse Raquin)
Derek McLane (Fully Committed)

On the Bubble
David Korins (Misery)
Christopher Oram (Hughie)
Scott Pask (The Father)
Tom Scutt (King Charles III)
Tom Pye (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
David Zinn (The Humans)

Dark Horses
Derek McLane (China Doll)
Derek McLane (Noises Off)
Jan Versweyveld (A View From the Bridge)

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Paul Tazewell (Hamilton)
Jeff Mahshie (She Loves Me)

On the Bubble
Ann Roth (Shuffle Along)
Emilio Sosa (On Your Feet!)
Jane Greenwood (Bright Star)
Katrina Lindsay (American Psycho)

Dark Horses
Catherine Zuber (Fiddler on the Roof)
Anna Louizos (School of Rock)
Alejo Vietti (Allegiance)
Toni-Leslie James (Amazing Grace)

What We Missed
Gregg Barnes (Tuck Everlasting)

Best Costume Design of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Jane Greenwood (Thérèse Raquin)
Tom Scutt (King Charles III)

On the Bubble
Clint Ramos (Eclipsed)
Ann Roth (Sylvia)
Jane Greenwood (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
Wojciech Dziedzic (The Crucible)

Dark Horse
Anita Yavich (Fool for Love)
Michael Krass (Noises Off)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Shoe-Ins
Howell Binkley (Hamilton)
Justin Townsend (American Psycho)

On the Bubble
Kenneth Posner (On Your Feet!)
Ben Stanton (Spring Awakening)
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer (Shuffle Along)
Donald Holder (She Loves Me)

Dark Horses
Jane Cox (The Color Purple)
Kenneth Posner (Tuck Everlasting)

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Shoe-Ins
Natasha Katz (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
Justin Townsend (The Humans)

On the Bubble
John Clark (King Charles III)
Jan Versweyveld (A View From the Bridge)
Ben Stanton (Fully Committed)
Keith Parham (Thérèse Raquin)

Dark Horses
Jan Versweyveld (The Crucible)
Japhy Weideman (Old Times)
Neil Austin (Hughie)

Those are our Tony Nomination predictions.  What do you think?  Did we leave out your favorites? Let us know in a comment!

Be sure to check back on Tuesday morning to see how we did when we publish the full list of Tony nominations.