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The Mid-Season Report

It has been nine months since the last Tony broadcast in June. In that time, 22 new shows have opened, vying for their shot at taking home the hardware. In the next two months before the 2016 Tonys, 16 additional productions are slated to open, each of them trying to dethrone the current frontrunners.

Some current contenders are safe, as their ticket to a nomination is fairly secure. Others, though, are at great risk of losing their spot to an upcoming production. Let’s take a look at where current contenders stand for the four biggest musical categories.

Best Musical
Safe:Hamilton, which already won a Grammy over last year’s Tony winner, Fun Home, is a lock for a nomination (and the win).
At Risk: On Your Feet! & School of Rock are both candidates for nods. With the number of new musicals opening this spring, however, neither is safe.

Best Musical Revival
Safe: The Color Purple and Fiddler on the Roof are both locks to be nominated. Each got glowing reviews and has performed strongly at the box office.
At Risk: Spring Awakening, which has closed but will be launching a national tour next year, may be able to pick up a nomination. The determining factor in this category will be whether Shuffle Along, a new version of an old musical, is eligible as an original or a revival.

Actor in a Musical
Safe: Leslie Odom, Jr. (Aaron Burr, Hamilton) and Alex Brightman (Dewey, School of Rock) are both locks for this category. Lin Manuel-Miranda (Hamilton, Hamilton) and Danny Burstein (Tevye, Fiddler on the Roof) are also unlikely to be knocked out of the race.
At Risk: Josh Segarra (Emilio, On Your Feet!).

This category is going to be the hardest for anyone else to break into. I don’t see any of the four actors named above as safe being dethroned, leaving only one or two (in the case of a tie like last year) slots left.

Actress in a Musical
Safe: Cynthia Erivo (Celie, The Color Purple) will be nominated with out a doubt. Phillipa Soo (Eliza Hamilton, Hamilton) also has a pretty firm hold on a nod.
At Risk: Ana Villafañe (Gloria, On Your Feet!) could get a nod if there aren’t enough contenders this spring. I expect three to four competitive names to show up in the next two months, including superstar Audra McDonald (Lottie, Shuffle Along) who holds the record for most Tony Award wins of any actor.

That is where everyone stands now. We will know for sure whether things go as expected on May 8th, when the nominations are announced.

OliverThe Mid-Season Report
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