In the 9 months since the 2015 Tonys, 22 shows have opened. With only two months left before the 2016 Tony eligibility deadline, 16 additional productions are slated to open. We go through the fall season of musicals to see which productions and performers are at risk of losing their nomination slot in the next two months, and which are pretty likely to get a nod no matter what happens this spring.
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UPDATE: See our predictions & the full list of nominees
Click here to view our complete coverage of the 2016 Tony Awards
Last year, we correctly predicted 22 of the 24 Tony Award winners, more than any other theater publication. This year, we are starting our Tony Awards analysis early. While the awards won’t be announced until June 5th, we are going to go through each show we have had the pleasure of seeing, and indicate which awards we feel they might be nominated for in April. We will continue to update this page as we see new shows.
Hamilton
If Hamilton lands a nomination in each of the categories listed below, it would tie The Producers (2001) & Billy Elliot, The Musical (2009) for the record of most Tony Award nominations in a single year. Since there is a long season ahead with many competing musicals yet to open, it is unlikely that Hamilton will be able to pull off all of the nominations below.
The Tony Awards Eligibility Committee, which will likely meet sometime in November, will play a big role in determining Hamilton’s fate. The categorizations that may be in contention are both Leslie Odom Jr. and Phillipa Soo’s eligibility as either leading or featured actor/actress. At last year’s Lucille Lortel Awards, Odom and Soo were both considered to be playing lead roles, whereas the Drama Desk awards gave Odom a nomination for featured actor. Our guess is that both will be considered lead roles for the Tony Awards.UPDATE NOVEMBER 2015: Leslie Odom Jr. and Phillipa Soo have both been considered eligible as leads in Hamilton for Tony Nominations.
Finally, we know the Tony committee has considered re-instating the Tony Award for Sound Design. If this award is re-instated for 2016, Hamilton’s Nevin Steinberg will surely be considered for nomination.
Best Musical
Actor in a Leading Role: Lin-Manuel Miranda (Alexander Hamilton); Leslie Odom Jr. (Aaron Burr)
Actress in a Leading Role: Phillipa Soo (Eliza Hamilton)
Actor in a Featured Role: Daveed Diggs (Lafayette/Jefferson); Christopher Jackson (George Washington); Jonathan Groff (King George).
Actress in a Featured Role: Renée Elise Goldsberry (Angelica Shuyler)
Score: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Book: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Director: Thomas Kail
Choreography: Andy Blankenbuehler
Orchestrations: Alex Lacamoire
Scenic: David Korins
Costumes: Paul Tazewell
Lighting: Howell Binkley
Just like that, the Tony Race is over. We are pleased to announce that our predictions were the most accurate of any theater publication! We review the Tony predictions of theater experts, and rank them according to how well they did.
read moreHandicapping the Tony Race Part 5: Our Predictions
Oliver June 7, 2015Handicapping the Tony Race Part 4: The Odds
Oliver June 7, 2015Who stands the best chance to take home the hardware? We go through each category, setting the final odds for each nominee. Where would you place your bet?
read moreHandicapping the Tony Race Part 3: The Locks
Oliver June 5, 2015Before we make our final predictions, we go over those Tony nominees who have near locks on the win.
read moreOver the last two weeks, we have assessed the starting positions of the nominees in each of Tony Award categories. This is an analysis of some of the biggest shifts in favor that we have seen in the last two weeks.
read moreHandicapping the Tony Race Part 1: At the Gate
Oliver May 5, 2015While the Tonys are no horse race, there are still clear favorites, and long shots. We provide analysis on where the nominees of each category stand.
read more2015 Tony Nominations – What to Expect
Oliver April 27, 2015We take a look at where people stand the day before nominations come out. Who is a shoe in and who is a dark horse to hear their name on Nomination day? Read to find out.
read more2015 Drama League Nominations
Oliver April 21, 2015This morning Cherry Jones and Denis O’Hare announced the 2015 Drama League Nominations. Today’s nominations marked the second awards show covering Broadway theater to announce their nominations. Here are the nominees.
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